USD Would be 20 Liras in Next Months
Updated
Although the chart has too many bullish daily candles, the upward angle and trend confidence shows me the trend is your friend. So I expect a new record high and a breakout of December's high of 18.25. The target is 20 in the next two months.
On the macro side, the imbalances remain. Turkey has the highest negative real interest rate (minus 64%)* among countries targeting inflation worldwide. Turkish inflation continues to grow, and the negative difference would grow. As a conclustion country's economic agents would continue to get rid of the lira. The Turkish central bank can't achieve its 5% inflation target for more than a decade. With Erdogan in power, it would never happen.
Yearly current accounts have been negative for the last 20 years, with one exception in the 2020 Covid year. In 2022 Turkey continues to register the current account deficit thanks to the high energy prices of imported goods and perpetual high inflation. Without a sound monetary policy, the Turkish lira could be permanently devalued to new historic lows every year or two.
*I compare last month's inflation with today's central bank policy rate. It is not 100% correct in the macroeconomic sense. They compare the expected inflation rate at the end of the year with the policy rate. Still, all forecasts are sloppy and usually are not on target, so I deliberately use the statistics.
On the macro side, the imbalances remain. Turkey has the highest negative real interest rate (minus 64%)* among countries targeting inflation worldwide. Turkish inflation continues to grow, and the negative difference would grow. As a conclustion country's economic agents would continue to get rid of the lira. The Turkish central bank can't achieve its 5% inflation target for more than a decade. With Erdogan in power, it would never happen.
Yearly current accounts have been negative for the last 20 years, with one exception in the 2020 Covid year. In 2022 Turkey continues to register the current account deficit thanks to the high energy prices of imported goods and perpetual high inflation. Without a sound monetary policy, the Turkish lira could be permanently devalued to new historic lows every year or two.
*I compare last month's inflation with today's central bank policy rate. It is not 100% correct in the macroeconomic sense. They compare the expected inflation rate at the end of the year with the policy rate. Still, all forecasts are sloppy and usually are not on target, so I deliberately use the statistics.
Trade closed manually
Two months are over. Target hasn't been reached, however, the trend was bullish.
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