Turkish Lira Crisis 2019
Updated
Markets are on edge, the calmness should not be mistaken for business as usual. The unaware do not realise there is a massive macro move cooking and ready to be plated up:
Erdogan making fiery speeches saying that Turkey will not back down etc will not reflect well in markets. Investors smell desperation from local banks who have been selling $ at market in large sizes to keep the Lira up. They are running out of powder and as is always the case with dictators, market forces will deal the real damage.
From a technical perspective, closing above 6.00 this week as early as today is in play. This will trigger the vertical breakout and markets will cascade the stops to fill all the way up to 7.80.
Best of luck all those on the bid.
Erdogan making fiery speeches saying that Turkey will not back down etc will not reflect well in markets. Investors smell desperation from local banks who have been selling $ at market in large sizes to keep the Lira up. They are running out of powder and as is always the case with dictators, market forces will deal the real damage.
From a technical perspective, closing above 6.00 this week as early as today is in play. This will trigger the vertical breakout and markets will cascade the stops to fill all the way up to 7.80.
Best of luck all those on the bid.
Note
For today's session ... Note
Same channel, same targets, same flows... Note
6.00x remains in play 
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