2/18/25 - general mkt observations
i'd rather be sippin' pina coladas on the balcony at this stage than continue at the beach party with clear skies darkening. think i've just been there, done that enough to not want to play the last minute FAFO game as much as one can possibly avoid it.
so when i look out over the next 12 months... yup... let me stop right there... i don't think we can do that and i get the sense that everyone is doing just this. do i think we'll end the year higher on the index vs. where we stand today? yes. but do i think we just keep chugging along in the clown car in the same fashion as last year. no.
there are a lot of things that changed in the last 3 months. take for instance, how volatile the tape has become (once again) on trump's shower or toilet tweets. less taco bell, more pepto pls. but the reality is, we're just trading the tape we're presented to. any emotional reaction you have to any of it is a disadvantage to your pnl and a benefit to the zero sum other guy *well* computer. DOGE matters. dollar dominance and signaling matters. rates matter. tariffs matter. china matters. all of a sudden, the soup might include a bat. nah. that's for a fairy tale.
take a look at this chart.
i've plotted ST rates vs. S&P earnings yield and flipped on some haikin ashi action for the candles to show trends as more obvious. while we could argue about infinite topics in the >12 month context for each of these... simply put... ST rates look... competitive. even in the fake video game we all play, we get to choose different doors, weapons, opinions to follow. opportunity cost matters.
and so when i see the rolling over of this trend PLUS dominance of market cap weighted S&P vs. equal weight S&P (SPXEW/SPY)... this also tells me there's an embedded premium in these "will survive better than the others" boats. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.d in trading view) shows you the same thing. Everyone has been chitcoinin' but realizes now the zero-sum game of 99% of these things and the conclusion is... "settle into USDT and BTC". ultimately, that purple line (back to the trad mkts) indicates we might be reaching a point where growth is unclear, the path is unclear... and therefore... any relevant catalyst (like a headline about China-Taiwan... EVEN IF IT WON'T HAPPEN) could throw these markets off 5-10% easily. maybe that's all we get. maybe there's something else. right now we don't have that catalyst.
it's getting a bit spooky out here. we will keep playing our earnings game. liking what we like
BTC
,
NXT
,
UBER
, tsm... incubating a few others like
EVVTY
,
BLDE
, mu. i can't HELP but to keep my cash balance awkwardly high.
i don't mind jumping back in the pool. but my swimsuit is dry. the pina colada is chilly. and the whispy air coming in off the rocky ocean sends a feel-good shiver up my spine.
something's off, but in a good way. opportunity is coming. be vigilant. risk manage. know what you own. know what you want to own if/when/for how much.
have a good week.
V
so when i look out over the next 12 months... yup... let me stop right there... i don't think we can do that and i get the sense that everyone is doing just this. do i think we'll end the year higher on the index vs. where we stand today? yes. but do i think we just keep chugging along in the clown car in the same fashion as last year. no.
there are a lot of things that changed in the last 3 months. take for instance, how volatile the tape has become (once again) on trump's shower or toilet tweets. less taco bell, more pepto pls. but the reality is, we're just trading the tape we're presented to. any emotional reaction you have to any of it is a disadvantage to your pnl and a benefit to the zero sum other guy *well* computer. DOGE matters. dollar dominance and signaling matters. rates matter. tariffs matter. china matters. all of a sudden, the soup might include a bat. nah. that's for a fairy tale.
take a look at this chart.
i've plotted ST rates vs. S&P earnings yield and flipped on some haikin ashi action for the candles to show trends as more obvious. while we could argue about infinite topics in the >12 month context for each of these... simply put... ST rates look... competitive. even in the fake video game we all play, we get to choose different doors, weapons, opinions to follow. opportunity cost matters.
and so when i see the rolling over of this trend PLUS dominance of market cap weighted S&P vs. equal weight S&P (SPXEW/SPY)... this also tells me there's an embedded premium in these "will survive better than the others" boats. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.d in trading view) shows you the same thing. Everyone has been chitcoinin' but realizes now the zero-sum game of 99% of these things and the conclusion is... "settle into USDT and BTC". ultimately, that purple line (back to the trad mkts) indicates we might be reaching a point where growth is unclear, the path is unclear... and therefore... any relevant catalyst (like a headline about China-Taiwan... EVEN IF IT WON'T HAPPEN) could throw these markets off 5-10% easily. maybe that's all we get. maybe there's something else. right now we don't have that catalyst.
it's getting a bit spooky out here. we will keep playing our earnings game. liking what we like
BTC
,
NXT
,
UBER
, tsm... incubating a few others like
EVVTY
,
BLDE
, mu. i can't HELP but to keep my cash balance awkwardly high.
i don't mind jumping back in the pool. but my swimsuit is dry. the pina colada is chilly. and the whispy air coming in off the rocky ocean sends a feel-good shiver up my spine.
something's off, but in a good way. opportunity is coming. be vigilant. risk manage. know what you own. know what you want to own if/when/for how much.
have a good week.
V
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.