USOIL Weekly Analysis 9-13 December
Updated
So 
USOIL continued its fall previous week too.
For the upcoming week, my bets are on the upside, these are the keypoints of observation leading to this.
1. Since last 7 weeks, Crudeoil is stuck in a box range, and also the contracting triangle pattern is in the verge or breaking out / breaking down, so we can expect big moves that would possibly take crudeoil out of this box.
2. Nov 11-15 week, Market consolidated in range, grabbed buyside liquidity first, then the sell side liquidity and the week after that, market gave the one-sided move upwards.
3. From 27Nov till last friday, price formed similar structure where it collected buyside liquidity first, then sellside liquidity in the friday fall.
4. Currently the price is trading near a very important demand zone, so a move towards upside is expected.
5. China's inflation rate and PPI data comes out on Monday 7 Asia session, which can be a trigger for monday move.
6. US CPI data comes out this wednesday, which can act as a major trigger in breaking the trendline resistance above and price moving up to take out liquidity near 72.80$
7. As 25bp rate cut is largely expected in the next Fed meeting, the CPI data will be crucial in taking that decision, and this will weaken the dollar and is bullish for crudeoil, so that could be a major trigger onto breaking the resistance and moving up.
Conclusion:
So there are some key data coming this week, China PPI data and Inflation data which can signal some bullishness if the economy is strong and there is demand and also US CPI data which will also affect crudeoil price.
Technically, we are in a strong demand zone, and as we collected liquidity from buyside and sellside last week, chances are more we head for upside this coming week.
Watch out for resistances at 68$, 69$ and 70$, break of which can lead to nice upside rally.
What are your thoughts?
NB: Not a financial advise, this is just my observation and only for educational purpose.
USOIL continued its fall previous week too.For the upcoming week, my bets are on the upside, these are the keypoints of observation leading to this.
1. Since last 7 weeks, Crudeoil is stuck in a box range, and also the contracting triangle pattern is in the verge or breaking out / breaking down, so we can expect big moves that would possibly take crudeoil out of this box.
2. Nov 11-15 week, Market consolidated in range, grabbed buyside liquidity first, then the sell side liquidity and the week after that, market gave the one-sided move upwards.
3. From 27Nov till last friday, price formed similar structure where it collected buyside liquidity first, then sellside liquidity in the friday fall.
4. Currently the price is trading near a very important demand zone, so a move towards upside is expected.
5. China's inflation rate and PPI data comes out on Monday 7 Asia session, which can be a trigger for monday move.
6. US CPI data comes out this wednesday, which can act as a major trigger in breaking the trendline resistance above and price moving up to take out liquidity near 72.80$
7. As 25bp rate cut is largely expected in the next Fed meeting, the CPI data will be crucial in taking that decision, and this will weaken the dollar and is bullish for crudeoil, so that could be a major trigger onto breaking the resistance and moving up.
Conclusion:
So there are some key data coming this week, China PPI data and Inflation data which can signal some bullishness if the economy is strong and there is demand and also US CPI data which will also affect crudeoil price.
Technically, we are in a strong demand zone, and as we collected liquidity from buyside and sellside last week, chances are more we head for upside this coming week.
Watch out for resistances at 68$, 69$ and 70$, break of which can lead to nice upside rally.
What are your thoughts?
NB: Not a financial advise, this is just my observation and only for educational purpose.
Note
TP1 : 69.13$
TP2 : 70$
Trade closed: target reached
Both target achieved.
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