USOIL is approaching $80!
The price of Western Texas Intermediate crude oil, the benchmark for US oil, was around $77.50 on Friday. WTI prices rose after weaker-than-expected US retail sales data, fueling hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates in the coming months. The conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian Hamas has yet to see a resolution or significant progress toward a negotiated ceasefire, keeping energy markets nervous about potential spillover into neighboring oil-producing nations like Iran. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) firmly believes that global demand for crude oil will continue to grow over the next two decades, but this perspective is challenged by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecasts a decline in global demand in the coming months. The IEA's forecasts predict a slowdown in the growth of global crude oil demand to 1.22 million barrels per day, while OPEC forecasts a long-term increase of more than double that figure. From a technical standpoint, WTI saw its highest bids in nearly three weeks on Friday, testing $78.40 before concluding the week's trading near $78.20 at Friday's close. On the H4 chart, the price is within an upward channel that seems to support the price rally well. However, I expect a slight retracement towards the $75 area, bouncing off the Fibonacci physiological level before heading back towards $80, breaking through the first supply zone and using the second as a resistance level. Nevertheless, the price has good potential to return to November 2023 levels. Regards and happy trading to all.
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