(I) Geopolitics: The Sword of Damocles Hanging Over the Market
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is teetering on the edge of explosion, with escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran exerting enormous pressure on crude oil markets. As **OPEC's third-largest oil producer** , Iran plays a pivotal role in global oil supply, pumping **3.35 million barrels per day** in May . While the National Iranian Oil Company claims its refining and storage facilities remain intact, further conflict could severely disrupt Iran's production, triggering global supply contractions. Adding to the tension, Iran controls the **Strait of Hormuz** , a critical chokepoint through which **20% of the world's oil passes** . A closure of this strategic waterway due to conflict would create a massive supply deficit, acting as a powerful catalyst for oil price surges. On June 14, Ismail Kousari, a member of Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, revealed Iran is seriously considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz —a statement that immediately bolstered bullish sentiment in oil markets. However, if the conflict de-escalates and stabilizes, the upward pressure on oil prices would diminish significantly.
(II) Supply-Demand Fundamentals: Intense Battle Between Bulls and Bears
**Demand Side: Peak Season Support vs. Growth Bottlenecks**
As summer approaches, major economies like those in Europe and the U.S. enter peak travel periods, driving surging demand for petroleum products such as gasoline and jet fuel. Data from the **U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)** shows U.S. crude inventories have fallen sharply for consecutive weeks, with gasoline and diesel consumption hitting record highs. While global economic growth remains sluggish overall, steady demand growth persists in certain regions and industries. However, the broader trend of slowing global growth has constrained the magnitude of oil demand expansion, with emerging economies failing to meet projected growth targets due to challenging economic conditions.
**Supply Side: Uncertain Prospects**
OPEC+ announced plans to increase production by **411,000 barrels per day** starting in July , yet OPEC's actual output in May stood at **26.75 million barrels per day**—falling short of market expectations and indicating underwhelming compliance with production targets. U.S. shale oil production faces multiple uncertainties, with output influenced by technical, cost, and policy factors. Meanwhile, intensified U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports have reduced Iran's export volumes from **1.5 million barrels per day** at the start of the year to less than **1 million barrels per day** currently, widening the supply gap. However, if OPEC+ ramps up production efforts or U.S. shale oil output exceeds expectations, the strained supply conditions could ease, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
USOIL BUY71~71.5
SL:70
TP:72~73
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is teetering on the edge of explosion, with escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran exerting enormous pressure on crude oil markets. As **OPEC's third-largest oil producer** , Iran plays a pivotal role in global oil supply, pumping **3.35 million barrels per day** in May . While the National Iranian Oil Company claims its refining and storage facilities remain intact, further conflict could severely disrupt Iran's production, triggering global supply contractions. Adding to the tension, Iran controls the **Strait of Hormuz** , a critical chokepoint through which **20% of the world's oil passes** . A closure of this strategic waterway due to conflict would create a massive supply deficit, acting as a powerful catalyst for oil price surges. On June 14, Ismail Kousari, a member of Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, revealed Iran is seriously considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz —a statement that immediately bolstered bullish sentiment in oil markets. However, if the conflict de-escalates and stabilizes, the upward pressure on oil prices would diminish significantly.
(II) Supply-Demand Fundamentals: Intense Battle Between Bulls and Bears
**Demand Side: Peak Season Support vs. Growth Bottlenecks**
As summer approaches, major economies like those in Europe and the U.S. enter peak travel periods, driving surging demand for petroleum products such as gasoline and jet fuel. Data from the **U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)** shows U.S. crude inventories have fallen sharply for consecutive weeks, with gasoline and diesel consumption hitting record highs. While global economic growth remains sluggish overall, steady demand growth persists in certain regions and industries. However, the broader trend of slowing global growth has constrained the magnitude of oil demand expansion, with emerging economies failing to meet projected growth targets due to challenging economic conditions.
**Supply Side: Uncertain Prospects**
OPEC+ announced plans to increase production by **411,000 barrels per day** starting in July , yet OPEC's actual output in May stood at **26.75 million barrels per day**—falling short of market expectations and indicating underwhelming compliance with production targets. U.S. shale oil production faces multiple uncertainties, with output influenced by technical, cost, and policy factors. Meanwhile, intensified U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports have reduced Iran's export volumes from **1.5 million barrels per day** at the start of the year to less than **1 million barrels per day** currently, widening the supply gap. However, if OPEC+ ramps up production efforts or U.S. shale oil output exceeds expectations, the strained supply conditions could ease, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
USOIL BUY71~71.5
SL:70
TP:72~73
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.