Oil: The cone! At what price? Some info
Updated
Hi Guys,
according to IMF Saudi Arabia would need oil at $80-$85 a barrel to balance budget. According to some other economists 2019 budget implies Brent at $70-71 per barrel with oil production at 10.2 million barrels per day. According to Ellen R.Wald Saudi Arabia does not base its oil policy on the budgetary break-even price per barrel of oil.
IMHO forthcoming ARAMCO IPO will play an important role in this respect. Saudi Arabia’s implicit backing for a bond deal crucial to helping finance his ambitions.
In any case, from a structural point of view, price IMHO may be set to remain in "THE CONE" travelling towards apex with a bullish bias supported by shortage supply, political turmoils and disruptions.
For easy reference please note the black bold numbers (1,2,3) are intended to provide the wider narrative.
The comments below refer to the period of consolidation following the low at $25 in 2016. This "bull run" was stopped on Oct.2nd, 2018 by the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi.
Outcome of UN investigations in respect of Human Rights violations alleggedly perpetrated by OPEC major producer may have deep impact on oil price as King under widespread criticism.
U.S. production is another important factor. If WTI holds on to its recent gains and new pipelines come online as scheduled, U.S. supply could also help replace the light-crude oil and compensate exports lost from Iran.
Russia is also looking to increase its production this summer. When OPEC and its non-OPEC partners meet in Vienna at the end of June, it is possible that the production agreement could fall to shambles. In that case, many producers will feel pressure to put as many barrels as they can on the market—a move that will drive prices down. On the other hand, OPEC, with Russia’s assistance, might agree to maintain quotas with only a modest increase in production, and that would keep prices from soaring too high or going too low.
To be continued...
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
according to IMF Saudi Arabia would need oil at $80-$85 a barrel to balance budget. According to some other economists 2019 budget implies Brent at $70-71 per barrel with oil production at 10.2 million barrels per day. According to Ellen R.Wald Saudi Arabia does not base its oil policy on the budgetary break-even price per barrel of oil.
IMHO forthcoming ARAMCO IPO will play an important role in this respect. Saudi Arabia’s implicit backing for a bond deal crucial to helping finance his ambitions.
In any case, from a structural point of view, price IMHO may be set to remain in "THE CONE" travelling towards apex with a bullish bias supported by shortage supply, political turmoils and disruptions.
For easy reference please note the black bold numbers (1,2,3) are intended to provide the wider narrative.
The comments below refer to the period of consolidation following the low at $25 in 2016. This "bull run" was stopped on Oct.2nd, 2018 by the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi.
Outcome of UN investigations in respect of Human Rights violations alleggedly perpetrated by OPEC major producer may have deep impact on oil price as King under widespread criticism.
U.S. production is another important factor. If WTI holds on to its recent gains and new pipelines come online as scheduled, U.S. supply could also help replace the light-crude oil and compensate exports lost from Iran.
Russia is also looking to increase its production this summer. When OPEC and its non-OPEC partners meet in Vienna at the end of June, it is possible that the production agreement could fall to shambles. In that case, many producers will feel pressure to put as many barrels as they can on the market—a move that will drive prices down. On the other hand, OPEC, with Russia’s assistance, might agree to maintain quotas with only a modest increase in production, and that would keep prices from soaring too high or going too low.
To be continued...
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
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