Oil: “Don’t try to catch a falling knife”
Updated
Hi Guys,
January did not start bad with prices rising and peaking with Operation Martyr Soleimani. Despite this, all gains made in 45 days were lost quickly in 20 days thanks to coronavirus and worries over economic growth and oil demand.
Since my last idea on WTI posted on Oct.7, black gold moved from $52 to $65 in approx. 45 days.
[Click & Play the above in order to watch price unfold]
The peak at $65 was reached when tensions between US and Iran escalated following the killing of the Iranian General Soleimani on Jan.3 and Iran hitting back with "Operation Martyr Soleimani".
Tensions between US and Iran de-escalated since and now we are back again at same level of 1-2-3 which provided support at $52 thanks also to spreading of coronavirus.
Will this level of previous support at 1-2-3 ($52) hold the pressure of this new virus? We don't know. All we know is that next OPEC meeting is scheduled for March 5 but they are trying already to stop the bleeding as this article from Reuters shows. [OPEC aims to extend oil output cuts through June, alarmed by China virus]
reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/opec-aims-to-extend-oil-output-cuts-through-june-alarmed-by-china-virus-idUSKBN1ZR141
“Don’t try to catch a falling knife” is sage advice for investors trying to identify the trough in a market like oil following a sharp selloff.
The following idea "The Cone" was posted on May 1 and it was structured on a Monthly chart.
[Click & Play the above in order to watch price unfold]
For additional infos about WTI please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post.
If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
January did not start bad with prices rising and peaking with Operation Martyr Soleimani. Despite this, all gains made in 45 days were lost quickly in 20 days thanks to coronavirus and worries over economic growth and oil demand.
Since my last idea on WTI posted on Oct.7, black gold moved from $52 to $65 in approx. 45 days.
[Click & Play the above in order to watch price unfold]
The peak at $65 was reached when tensions between US and Iran escalated following the killing of the Iranian General Soleimani on Jan.3 and Iran hitting back with "Operation Martyr Soleimani".
Tensions between US and Iran de-escalated since and now we are back again at same level of 1-2-3 which provided support at $52 thanks also to spreading of coronavirus.
Will this level of previous support at 1-2-3 ($52) hold the pressure of this new virus? We don't know. All we know is that next OPEC meeting is scheduled for March 5 but they are trying already to stop the bleeding as this article from Reuters shows. [OPEC aims to extend oil output cuts through June, alarmed by China virus]
reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec/opec-aims-to-extend-oil-output-cuts-through-june-alarmed-by-china-virus-idUSKBN1ZR141
“Don’t try to catch a falling knife” is sage advice for investors trying to identify the trough in a market like oil following a sharp selloff.
The following idea "The Cone" was posted on May 1 and it was structured on a Monthly chart.
[Click & Play the above in order to watch price unfold]
For additional infos about WTI please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post.
If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
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OPEC+, which includes Russia, has been reducing oil supply to support prices, agreeing in December to hold back 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of output until the end of March.Note
This is very interesting and its from McKinsey mckinsey.com/solutions/energy-insights/global-oil-supply-demand-outlook-to-2035/~/media/231FB01E4937431B8BA070CC55AA572E.ashxNote
Barclays said on Tuesday that oil prices could lose $2 per barrel, slipping to $62 per barrel and $57 per barrel on the bank’s full-year forecast for Brent and WTI, respectively.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN1ZR04Q?taid=5e2fdd60ebed6f0001a564e9&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
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With this in mind we need to go back to a longer TMF applying a BB that make sense Note
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Each dive (red and blue arrows pointing down) has been the consequence of something. 1. Jamal Khashoggi was assassinated at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on 2 October 2018 by agents of the Saudi government;
2. 23 April 2019 Saudi Arabia executes 37 in connection with terrorism;
3. nCoV2019
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Here the link to my previous post following this narrative:Note
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