Possible price action following surprize oil draw pre OPEC meet
Updated
The -6M draw on Wednesday took many by surprise, and sounds like oil is being moved around rather than being used up. The price action following the news was subdued, as if there is no enthusiasm for what would have been very bullish news under normal circumstances, given the Fed didn't hike and DXY took a steep fall.
OPEC side meeting in Algiers is on Wed 28th, with further rumors that it could be a full blown meeting. That in itself suggests that there is very little possibility of agreement. If you can't organize a meeting, what chance is there of organizing a freeze, or what they really need, a production cut.
Do opec really want higher prices, or are they satisfied to be putting further pressure on small US shale producers. If the oil majors want a piece of the shale pie, lower prices might suit them as well, especially if they are well hedged.
On 28th expect big price moves. Move to the upside not guaranteed IMHO.
OPEC side meeting in Algiers is on Wed 28th, with further rumors that it could be a full blown meeting. That in itself suggests that there is very little possibility of agreement. If you can't organize a meeting, what chance is there of organizing a freeze, or what they really need, a production cut.
Do opec really want higher prices, or are they satisfied to be putting further pressure on small US shale producers. If the oil majors want a piece of the shale pie, lower prices might suit them as well, especially if they are well hedged.
On 28th expect big price moves. Move to the upside not guaranteed IMHO.
Note
Looking more bullish than I thought. Lots of expectations before the OPEDC meeting regardless of disagreements between Iran and Saudi. Not that any agreement was expected.The pressure will be on Saudi to come up with some bullish news. It's reliance on a single strategy of winning more market share and pushing weaker competition out of the game has clearly failed. Saudi either leads, or relinquishes the lead to Iran and possibly Russia.
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