Simply put,
OPEC (Iran x Saudi) x War (Russia-Ukraine, Incl Sanctions) x Tightening (FED x Inflation)
Scenario entails a run up with equities... Sounds familiar? (2007-2008)
Banks/Institutions will be forced to close their short positions at a loss...
Probability: Least Likely
Key notes:
-Physical disruptions of supply
-Stagnating world production
Targets: 150/180
End Date: H2 '22, prob Q4 / H1 '23