USA closes, Europe suffers, IEA revises
We have already written several times that the pandemic situation in the United States is becoming less and less controllable every day (160K+ new cases per day already). Currently, there is only one way to stop the worsening of an already dire situation - lockdown. The idea for a nationwide lockdown in the United States was voiced by Dr. Michael Osterholm, President-elect Joe Biden's coronavirus advisor. But while Biden has no authority, these are more intentions than part of the reality.
In reality, a wave of local lockdowns and tightening measures in the USA began. For example, in New York, gatherings are limited to 10 people, bars and restaurants must close every evening at 10:00 pm. San Francisco has again banned indoor dining starting next Sunday, suspended high school reopening, and limited gyms and movie theaters to 25 percent of capacity.
Note that these are half measures, which means they will not be able to quickly change the situation for the better. At the same time, Europe shows that lockdowns work. For example, in France, the number of new cases since the introduction of the lockdown has almost halved.
Thursday was not the best day for the pound. UK GDP data for the third quarter came out slightly worse than experts' expectations (15.5% against expectations of 15.8% growth). In addition, information about another change in the deadline came from the Brexit fields. Let us remind you that this week the parties were supposed to complete negotiations and sign a trade agreement. But in fact, everything is postponed at least to the next week.
As expected, growth in the oil market stopped. Following the rather pessimistic OPEC forecast for the oil market, the IEA published even gloomier estimates. The agency now expects demand to fall by 8.8 million bpd in 2020 (versus 8.4 million bpd in last month's report). Separately, the report noted that the vaccine is unlikely to significantly increase oil demand until the second half of 2021. Plus, the weekly data on US oil stocks from the EIA unexpectedly showed a fairly significant increase.
In reality, a wave of local lockdowns and tightening measures in the USA began. For example, in New York, gatherings are limited to 10 people, bars and restaurants must close every evening at 10:00 pm. San Francisco has again banned indoor dining starting next Sunday, suspended high school reopening, and limited gyms and movie theaters to 25 percent of capacity.
Note that these are half measures, which means they will not be able to quickly change the situation for the better. At the same time, Europe shows that lockdowns work. For example, in France, the number of new cases since the introduction of the lockdown has almost halved.
Thursday was not the best day for the pound. UK GDP data for the third quarter came out slightly worse than experts' expectations (15.5% against expectations of 15.8% growth). In addition, information about another change in the deadline came from the Brexit fields. Let us remind you that this week the parties were supposed to complete negotiations and sign a trade agreement. But in fact, everything is postponed at least to the next week.
As expected, growth in the oil market stopped. Following the rather pessimistic OPEC forecast for the oil market, the IEA published even gloomier estimates. The agency now expects demand to fall by 8.8 million bpd in 2020 (versus 8.4 million bpd in last month's report). Separately, the report noted that the vaccine is unlikely to significantly increase oil demand until the second half of 2021. Plus, the weekly data on US oil stocks from the EIA unexpectedly showed a fairly significant increase.
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