Crude Oil Short
Updated
Short term crude oil sell trade
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Today at 10:30 EST crude oil inventory data will be reported. I believe it is driven by the three main activities:
<b>1) Crude oil U.S. exports. </b> U.S. exports are on the up trend since the beginning of 2017. It was rising sharply since may and started declining in July. I believe it will decline a little more to touch the lower trend line as it has done before because of:
<b>2) Oil production in OPEC. </b> OPEC Oil production is on the rise and has touched the lower uptrend. I believe with the U.S. tensions with IRAN all producers will continue to increase production and wight on the demand from U.S. pushing down exports.
<b>3) U.S. Oil import data </b> It is hard to predict U.S. imports as they are fluctuating sharply. They rose on the last report by more than 10% and which is obviously bigger rise than in exports, which may create bigger inventories.
Overall putting these three factors together I believe that change in inventories should be positive, which is not what analysts are saying. If market will price in analyst expectations and my scenario plays out, we should see a very nice event driven gap or quick drop down :)
Let's sell this bad boy
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