Long

Updated

Oil to just shy of 500

This will take years, if it is anything like prior cycles.

During this time the stock market generally has a sideways motion (the indexes) (slightly higher highs and slightly lower lows over and over.

it would then crash to 130 ish and settle out at 250 as the new paradigm.

I am fascinated by oil, it seems like the adult bitcoin.

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Wavecount if you will.

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"Over millions of years, the remains of these animals and plants were covered by layers of sand, silt, and rock. Heat and pressure from these layers turned the remains into what we now call crude oil or petroleum. The word petroleum means rock oil or oil from the earth."

Oil is the only resource I know of that is a finite supply, only available on earth, not asteroids or other planets.

This stuff is truly fascinating.

I think I am in love.

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Absolute Scarcity

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We broke out of a falling wedge here, as the res of market falls.

looks very strong.

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That's a break of the rectangle now, on oil.

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People laughing, as oil is about to go on another life changing cycle.

How it changes your life depends how you're positioned.

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rejected from the 200 day moving average, to test support on the top of the rectangle breakout.

to then show 4 hour hidden bullish DIV on the MACD.

Keep sending it up thanks.

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This short timeframe crap wont even matter in the end, but whatever.

Next target before pullback IMO.

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OK. so were going back to test the 200 day moving average. But my hunch is that were breaking through. Why else come back? should of just headed down if it was a rejection.

Bears tried. They failed.

Bulls bout to smash through.

Biden making remarks about increasing oil production. LOL writing is on the wall i swear... he has the top advisors, they're telling him this shit about to moon.

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Broke above the 236 fib, and appearing to hold it as support now.

Interesting.

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The first time the macd on the 12 month crossed was 1945.

it led to an oil price increase of 200% from the point of the cross. it did not correct downward after, it slowly climbed over many years before crossing up once again in 1970.

The 2nd time it crossed up was 1970, Oil went up 1100% from the point of cross before a major correction.

The third cross was mid way through 2001, the price of oil went up 727%.

The fourth potential cross is staring us in the face.

If history is any guide, oil price could be between 200 per barrel minimum, 530 midpoint, and 750 topside....

Point is... if this crosses, and its looking increasingly likely, then were in for a great number of years.

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To make the situation even better, go take a look at the top oil ideas on tradingview.

Short SHort SHort SHort Short Short Short.

LOL

yeah dont mind if we do squeezem

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Yesterdays price action annoyed me, because I remain convicted of higher prices. I ignored it and did other things.

Everyone and their mom shorted, smart shorts closed at the lows, rest are probably trapped and will be fuel for higher.

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Taking too long to break out. will look to rebuy lower.

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I could be wrong here, but a few % up is not going to change my mind. Broader market getting rekt carries huge risk for oil.

I believe oil will hold its ground better than the rest of the stock market, however, that does not mean there will not be losses. (in oil equities, which is what i sold)

A quote for today:

Nathan Rothschild "Learn to sell early, live with regret and become rich because of it."

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Additionally, I have to assume the administration will slam this down. inflation re-acceleration is occuring, that cannot be allowed to happen.

Jpow plus biden going to put a stop to it. For now.

if they dont, then i will be speechless.

Reserves released, interest rates significantly increased.

Inflation expectations MUST remain low.

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Let me be clear though, fighting this through rising rates will only lead to under investment and a lack of supply in the future. so the run to 500 is still on, but delayed IMO.

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A bare minimum i want to test the bottom of this channel and see another reaction.

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Im no oil expert, but saudis prob not cutting for the benifit of the rest of the worlds oil companies. They probably do see issues arising in the future with demand.

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Next target 93...

MikeMM

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MikeMM