Crude Oil is a Short
Crude Oil has basically crashed from highs north of 90/barrel. For months it has been working off the oversold condition by consolidating and trading in a range. It has become very chic to call the 'bottom' for crude oil but it is imperative to realize that crude is still in a Bear Market as denoted as underneath it's 200dma. I personally like to use the 550dma to get a real sense of trend and it is still way above price.
For now price is in equilibrium but crude oil production pushes fresh all time highs every week. I recently heard that the Saudis are continuing to ramp up their production in an effort to drive down prices. Why have prices remained so firm in the oil patch? I think it is because of the magnitudes of speculators piling in hoping for the bottom in crude. Recency Bias of $100 still fresh in their minds.
Regardless, Crude is trading at the top end of it's range on a day where the USD was very strong. Placing a stop above recent highs and playing for the breakdown of this long sideways consolidation provides excellent Risk/Reward for Shorting Crude Oil.
Current /CL COT Report: s23.postimg.org/sn8ru3abf/image.png
For now price is in equilibrium but crude oil production pushes fresh all time highs every week. I recently heard that the Saudis are continuing to ramp up their production in an effort to drive down prices. Why have prices remained so firm in the oil patch? I think it is because of the magnitudes of speculators piling in hoping for the bottom in crude. Recency Bias of $100 still fresh in their minds.
Regardless, Crude is trading at the top end of it's range on a day where the USD was very strong. Placing a stop above recent highs and playing for the breakdown of this long sideways consolidation provides excellent Risk/Reward for Shorting Crude Oil.
Current /CL COT Report: s23.postimg.org/sn8ru3abf/image.png
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