Update on Oil Shorts
Expect the ending diagonal (whose strength I had previously underestimated) to continue until ($42.20-$42.50).
This should then complete the uptrend in wave 3v or a wave-5.
Currently holding 0.8 contract short averaging $37.52.
Amend (10k) entry short limits from < $41.40-> $41.80 > zone to the < $42.30, $42.40, $43.50, $43.60, $43.70 > each entry at 10k to a total of 50k in all.
Position average becomes $39.43 to a size = 1.3 contracts with average risk @ $42 = -3340 ~ -33% on a $10,000 account
IF SHORT ENTRIES FILL, place TP for <$42.30->$42.70> at $41.05
Also place TP for 0.2 contract size ($37.52) at $41.05
position size then diminishes to 0.6 contract averaging $37.52 at a total risk -$3000 = -30% at price level $42.50
DON'T PLACE SLs
Tp for 0.6 contract remains at $34 as per target on chart above. DO NOT get greedy & hold to the added shorts at <$42.30-$42.70> to target $34.
If/when momentum confirms reversal to the diagonal formation, we could re-add shorts on the way down. Note that as things stand we have almost doubled the risk level on the account from -15% to -30%, even though the contract size has diminished by almost 50%
Take Care & Stay Safe
This should then complete the uptrend in wave 3v or a wave-5.
Currently holding 0.8 contract short averaging $37.52.
Amend (10k) entry short limits from < $41.40-> $41.80 > zone to the < $42.30, $42.40, $43.50, $43.60, $43.70 > each entry at 10k to a total of 50k in all.
Position average becomes $39.43 to a size = 1.3 contracts with average risk @ $42 = -3340 ~ -33% on a $10,000 account
IF SHORT ENTRIES FILL, place TP for <$42.30->$42.70> at $41.05
Also place TP for 0.2 contract size ($37.52) at $41.05
position size then diminishes to 0.6 contract averaging $37.52 at a total risk -$3000 = -30% at price level $42.50
DON'T PLACE SLs
Tp for 0.6 contract remains at $34 as per target on chart above. DO NOT get greedy & hold to the added shorts at <$42.30-$42.70> to target $34.
If/when momentum confirms reversal to the diagonal formation, we could re-add shorts on the way down. Note that as things stand we have almost doubled the risk level on the account from -15% to -30%, even though the contract size has diminished by almost 50%
Take Care & Stay Safe
Trade active
Price currently $38.00.Time to start making some money at last
Raise Tp on remaining 0.8 contract to $35.35
once price breaks $36.00 take SL down to entry + comm.
Position entry average =$37.52
Take Care & Stay Safe
Trade active
I am planning to improve my short portfolio as follows:-In case there is a spike in prices (wave-4)Sll 10k @ 38.80
Sell 10k @ $39.30
Sell 10k @ $39.60
In case there is a spike in prices (wave-4)
Sell 10k @ 40.30
Sell 10k @ 40.50
Already holding 0.8 contract short averaging $37.52.
If above positions fill, size increases to 1.3 / standard contract, averaging $39.
Risk at $41 becomes -$2600 = -26% on a $10,000 account.
Raise Target to @ $35.60 (1.382 fib ext) / or $34.80 (1.618 fib ext)
once price breaks $36.00 take SL down to entry + comm.
Take care & Stay Safe
Trade active
shorts at $38.80 & $39.30 filledPosition average raised to $37.826 for a 1 complete standard contract
Tps remain the same $35.60/$34.80. Risk calculations same.
keep remaining sell limit orders in place, but amend 10k @ $40.50 to become $40.40
Take Care & Stay Safe
Trade active
Holding 1 standard contract short averaging $37.826Add Short Limits as follows
10k@ 39.90
10k@ 39.80
10k@ 39.70
10k@ 39.60
If filled position average becomes $38.37 for 1.4 standard contract- Risk at $40 is -23% (-$2300). Risk @ 440.50 = -30% (-$2982)
Target same @ $32.50
Take care & stay safe.
Trade active
<$39.60-$39.80> filled, to a contract size = 1.3 averaging $38.25Remove 10k short entry @ $39.90
Risk assessment remains as outlined above. Target remains @ $32.50
Correction:-
"440.50" above should read "40.50" Sorry for the Typo
Take care & Stay Safe
Trade active
The position has reached risk @ $40.50 = -30% for 1.3 contract size on a $10,000 account. So I will work to assimilate1/3 the risk.Place Tp for short holdings $39.60-$39.70-$39.80 @ $39.20
Place Tp for 1 x 10k short acquired at $37.826 also at $39.20
$39.20 is y'day's low, and the lower 1HR BB.
If filled contract size gets reduced to 0.9 at 37.826 average.
Risk @ $40 becomes -$1962 = ~20% on 10,000 account
Targets for 0.9 contract remains the same @ $32.50
Take Care & Stay Safe.
Trade active
There is a Bear Motive on the 1HR chart now doing a wave-3Remove TPs @ $39.20
Holding 1.3 contract shorts averaging $37.826 targeting $32.50
Add Short limits @
10k @ $40.10
10k @ $39.90
All to same target $32.50
Take care & Stay Safe
Trade active
10k @ $39.90 filled to an overall average $37.97 for 1.4 contract size.take the 10k @ $40.10 limit short down to $39.25
TP for all remains @ $32.50
Take Care & Stay Safe.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.