Sell position on USOIL after Fed Conference
Fundamental:
11/02/22 | 14:00
“The Fed is expected to proceed with another large rate hike of 75 basis points,” said Susannah Streeter, investment and market analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
= Upcoming rate increase
"There are high hopes indicating that there may be some easing in the US central bank's aggressive approach to tackling inflation," she said.
= Possible “slowed down” by the Fed on interest rates
Traders expect a rise of just 50 BP in December, after three consecutive increases of 75 points.
These are mainly supported by the luxury sector and the health sector thanks to speculation on an easing of health restrictions in China and the solid results of Novo Nordisk.
= Luxury sector in power + economy slow down
In the United States, ten-year (US10YT=RR) and two-year (US2YT=RR) US Treasury bond yields are also flat, at 4.046% and 4.528% respectively.
= Stagnant bond markets
Oil prices are broadly stable pending the Fed. A possible drop in crude inventories in the United States, the upcoming European sanctions against Russia and speculation of an easing of sanitary restrictions in China offer some support, however.
Brent rose 0.05% to 94.70 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.03% to 88.40 dollars.
= Temporization of oil but there's a hope of falling
Total crude oil inventories fell 5 million barrels in the week ending October 28, with commercial oil inventories down 3.1 million barrels and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories down 1.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell last week while distillate petroleum inventories edged up.
= Oil scarcity
11/02/22 | 20:00
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell began his press conference after the meeting at 7:30 p.m. The decision itself was in line with market expectations, but the changes to the accompanying statement were seen as accommodating. So the US dollar fell, while gold and indices gained ground.
= The Fed intends to slow the rise in rates, the ultimate level of rates will be higher than expected. EURUSD remains high + Fed decisions affect markets with lag.
Technical :
H4 : Eliott waves (1,2,3,4,5), 5th wave ended, beginning of the correction (A,B,C,...),
High sell volume under 88$,
Momentum bearish divergence,
Low ADX on past trend, increasing ADX on decreasing trend
11/02/22 | 14:00
“The Fed is expected to proceed with another large rate hike of 75 basis points,” said Susannah Streeter, investment and market analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
= Upcoming rate increase
"There are high hopes indicating that there may be some easing in the US central bank's aggressive approach to tackling inflation," she said.
= Possible “slowed down” by the Fed on interest rates
Traders expect a rise of just 50 BP in December, after three consecutive increases of 75 points.
These are mainly supported by the luxury sector and the health sector thanks to speculation on an easing of health restrictions in China and the solid results of Novo Nordisk.
= Luxury sector in power + economy slow down
In the United States, ten-year (US10YT=RR) and two-year (US2YT=RR) US Treasury bond yields are also flat, at 4.046% and 4.528% respectively.
= Stagnant bond markets
Oil prices are broadly stable pending the Fed. A possible drop in crude inventories in the United States, the upcoming European sanctions against Russia and speculation of an easing of sanitary restrictions in China offer some support, however.
Brent rose 0.05% to 94.70 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.03% to 88.40 dollars.
= Temporization of oil but there's a hope of falling
Total crude oil inventories fell 5 million barrels in the week ending October 28, with commercial oil inventories down 3.1 million barrels and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories down 1.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell last week while distillate petroleum inventories edged up.
= Oil scarcity
11/02/22 | 20:00
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell began his press conference after the meeting at 7:30 p.m. The decision itself was in line with market expectations, but the changes to the accompanying statement were seen as accommodating. So the US dollar fell, while gold and indices gained ground.
= The Fed intends to slow the rise in rates, the ultimate level of rates will be higher than expected. EURUSD remains high + Fed decisions affect markets with lag.
Technical :
H4 : Eliott waves (1,2,3,4,5), 5th wave ended, beginning of the correction (A,B,C,...),
High sell volume under 88$,
Momentum bearish divergence,
Low ADX on past trend, increasing ADX on decreasing trend
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