US Oil - 2023 outlook

By LupaCapital

Original
Monthly
chart (1).

Monthly update

Price has indicated a new strong imbalance formed on the monthly where a retest of the altered imbalance has changed - with reference to chart (1) above. The reason for this change comes down to the monthly wicks looking left within the market structure providing the monthly wick lows reacting into the previously monthly zone.
As the demand zone is respected from the top down of structure, it is clear to provide a good buying case using the daily through to the weekly for understanding the structure formation which is indicating the imbalances are strong reversion points.

Weekly
Chart (2)

The weekly chart posted back on 28th November showed to scenarios for a confirmation of buys (daily) and the weekly looking to test the imbalance. Now price has tested the imbalance entering the weekly imbalance however rejecting off the 68.XX zone (with a daily confirmation).
The original analysis showed even though the Trend has been using the curve as it's pathway to create lower lows until the imbalance is ready to reject.

Weekly updated:

price has hit the imbalance as expected in the short term - now into 2023 - price will look to maintain the imbalance as outlined by the weekly.
The two white lines drawn - represent the imbalance netting out body twice - indicating clear buys are present from a strong impulse candle and reactive base formed. Confirmations on the daily also show this as a clearer path. Dropping down to those who also look for 8hours, this can be provided (review - 1.1fig).

1.1 Fig

Daily

Between $78 - 81 - provides a PCP zone which has proved strong as a daily supply zone which relies upon the supply and demand rules of reactive taps/nestling deep in the FL Daily zone. With the confirm rules in place, it is paramount departure candles and confirms are in place before selling or buying at pivot levels as part of imbalance strategies.
The PCP / flip zone offers the next target price at $90 using the four day chart and weekly. Note, the daily chart however offers a level of interest at $84.50 - where price will look to complete the top of a FL daily (upper zone). This hurdle will offer a buying pivot made on the daily candle.

Updated
Price has created a channel in which would look to tail off for a short term term sell.

January Update 2023 - Daily

Here is a quick take - offering a potential PCP pivot opportunity before price creates a further long opportunity. The 3rd tap and a confirmation candle where an engulfing candle has a ratio of 3:1. Other identifiable candle sticks to read offer a a reactive wick using the pivot level as a FL on say a 4hour/8hour time frame. This means that the demand imbalance is now filled.
looking left on structure - the daily candle block at the November 22 - offers a short term potential hurdle for buyers where a potential sell hedge can be added (await confirms).

LupaCapital

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