Technical analysis update: WTI oil (7th October 2021)
Updated
In our last idea we pointed out that RSI reached overbought condition and that such occurence is often followed by correction. We also noted that correction would drag price towards 75 USD per barrel. In addition to that we said that we would remain bullish even if correction took place. We continue to maintain that bullish stance. We actually think that current price is very attractive for investors as we expect eventual resumption of uptrend followed by retest of resistance at 79.76 USD. Our short-term price target remains 80 USD, medium-term price target 82 USD and long-term price target 90 USD.
Fundamental analysis
Recently OPEC decided not to boost prodcution further which is very positive fundamental development for oil worldwide. Several media news outlets reported that it is very likely that OPEC could not increase its production even if it wanted to because it lacks capacity to do so. Demand continues to pick up and we expect this trend to prevail over following 12 months. United Kingdoms continue to report shortages of fuel at its gas stations. Natural gas continues to grind higher altogether with oil while there is increasing talk of strong winter for 2021.
Technical analysis
RSI reversed from overbought condition and it currently points in bearish direction. We will observe whether it starts to flatten which would suggest that correction ceased. MACD continues to be bullish at the moment, however, it is losing momentum. Stochastic remains bullish. DM+ and DM- suggest that bullish trend is still present. ADX reversed but it continues to have bullish structure. We will observe it closely and we will look whether it manages to resume growth.
Support and resistance
Closest area of interest is 75 USD while short-term support appears below that at 74.21 USD. We will observe whether these two levels will manage to stop further selling pressure. Another two areas of interest are at 71.46 USD and 65.11 USD. Below that is major support level at 61.76 USD. Short-term resistance sits at 76.95 USD while another resistance above that lies at recent high of 79.76 USD
Recent track record
Here we did set short-term price target to 77.50 USD which was reached on 4th October 2021.
Here we did set short-term price target to 75 USD which was reached on 27th September 2021.
Here we did set short-term price target to 72.50 USD which was reached on 15th September 2021.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Fundamental analysis
Recently OPEC decided not to boost prodcution further which is very positive fundamental development for oil worldwide. Several media news outlets reported that it is very likely that OPEC could not increase its production even if it wanted to because it lacks capacity to do so. Demand continues to pick up and we expect this trend to prevail over following 12 months. United Kingdoms continue to report shortages of fuel at its gas stations. Natural gas continues to grind higher altogether with oil while there is increasing talk of strong winter for 2021.
Technical analysis
RSI reversed from overbought condition and it currently points in bearish direction. We will observe whether it starts to flatten which would suggest that correction ceased. MACD continues to be bullish at the moment, however, it is losing momentum. Stochastic remains bullish. DM+ and DM- suggest that bullish trend is still present. ADX reversed but it continues to have bullish structure. We will observe it closely and we will look whether it manages to resume growth.
Support and resistance
Closest area of interest is 75 USD while short-term support appears below that at 74.21 USD. We will observe whether these two levels will manage to stop further selling pressure. Another two areas of interest are at 71.46 USD and 65.11 USD. Below that is major support level at 61.76 USD. Short-term resistance sits at 76.95 USD while another resistance above that lies at recent high of 79.76 USD
Recent track record
Here we did set short-term price target to 77.50 USD which was reached on 4th October 2021.
Here we did set short-term price target to 75 USD which was reached on 27th September 2021.
Here we did set short-term price target to 72.50 USD which was reached on 15th September 2021.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Trade active
Price of USOIL retraced back towards its short-term resistance. We will watch whether price will manage to close above this price level today.Trade closed: target reached
Short-term price target of 80 USD has been reached.Trade active
Idea was updated in following post:
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