Yesterday, OPEC and its allies announced plans to extend a voluntary oil production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day through June 2024. Currently, the USOIL trades near $80.20 per barrel, and its structure is undergoing a significant change. Since late November 2023, the USOIL has traded predominantly sideways between $70 and $80 per barrel. However, last week, it broke above the resistance at $79.25 and established a new high in more than three months. By doing so, the USOIL formed an ascending channel, which is a bullish structure. In addition to that, the ADX started to tick slightly higher on the daily chart, suggesting the trend might be gaining bullish momentum. On top of that, technical indicators (on the daily chart), including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, all turned to the upside, which is yet another bullish sign. Finally, it looks like the USOIL might be awakening and getting positioned for more gains in the short-term and medium-term future.
Illustration 1.01 While OPEC and its allies are cutting oil production, the United States is doing the opposite; in fact, the U.S. crude oil production rose approximately 10% in 2023.
Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish (weak trend) Weekly time frame = Neutral
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Note
Illustration 1.02 The USOIL is testing the support at $79.25.
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