Fundamental & Technical analysis on USOIL
Updated
May 20th 2024
Fundamental: Were seeing a up tick in Non-comm Long and Short positions being held. Shorts are increasing at a faster pace. The Net positions is positive and holding steady.
Commercial (Hedgers) short positions is increasing significantly quicker then Longs, Net position is negative and decreasing/holding.
Technical: I'm expecting to see consolidation for the coming week/s between 78-81 with price action making a lower high causing a fake EMA cross over to the upside and setting its self up for more down side.
Entry Criteria: For me to consider a entry i have to keep seeing Short positions increase for both Non-comm and Comm in the coming weeks as well as Non-comm Longs decreasing. Ideally for Price action i want to see USOIL consolidate then make a lower high before its leg down (BLUE), there's the possibility it makes the lower high without consolidating (RED) but I do need to see the 5 EMA cross down the 20 EMA while Momentum is negative and the Stochastic is crossing down 50%
Fundamental: Were seeing a up tick in Non-comm Long and Short positions being held. Shorts are increasing at a faster pace. The Net positions is positive and holding steady.
Commercial (Hedgers) short positions is increasing significantly quicker then Longs, Net position is negative and decreasing/holding.
Technical: I'm expecting to see consolidation for the coming week/s between 78-81 with price action making a lower high causing a fake EMA cross over to the upside and setting its self up for more down side.
Entry Criteria: For me to consider a entry i have to keep seeing Short positions increase for both Non-comm and Comm in the coming weeks as well as Non-comm Longs decreasing. Ideally for Price action i want to see USOIL consolidate then make a lower high before its leg down (BLUE), there's the possibility it makes the lower high without consolidating (RED) but I do need to see the 5 EMA cross down the 20 EMA while Momentum is negative and the Stochastic is crossing down 50%
Note
Here is the COT report if any one wants to see it : cot-reports.com/commitments-of-traders-cot-reports-non-commercial-detailed/Trade active
I have partially opened up a short position with a tight Stop loss, im looking for a cross over of the 20 and 50 EMAs to the downside on the weeklyNote
The COT report that came out the May 24th didn't see much change with Non-commercial longs and shorts both seeing a slight decrease, the net positions also dropped but not by a Significant amount. Commercial saw a increase of both long and shorts with the Net positions seeing little to no change. I still hold my short bias for now until we get some different data that contradicts that bias. COT report: cot-reports.com/commitments-of-traders-cot-reports-non-commercial-detailed/
Note
May 28th COT report showed very little change for Non-Commercial participants in both Long and Short positions. Commercial (Hedgers) has seen a increase on both Long and Short but the short positions are holding and growing nicely plus the Net Position is Negative and lowering. We've also got the 20 EMA crossing down the 50 EMA on the weekly chart, my bias is still bearish.Trade active
I have entered another portion of my position on this relief bounce we're seeing. i am now in 2/3 of what would be my whole position . Im ok with it just flushing down from this point but if it wants to keep rallying then im ok with that as well since ill be averaging into my position giving myself better R:R.Note
The COT report that released today has seen a significant drop (-5,357) in Long positions being held by Non-Comm, the short positions being held by Non-Comm has also dropped a chunk but not the quantity that Longs have. Net positions for Non-Comm has also dropped getting closer to 30K then it has all year long. Commercial positions for both Long and Shorts decreased with shorts seeing the larger loss of the two, but that's not much to worry about with Net positions not seeing big change unlike Non-comms change in Net positions. I hate to sound like a broken record but i still hold my bearish bias, the COT report shows Non-Comm exiting Longs at a quicker pace then they are shorts with Commercial (Hedgers) not really moving positioning.
COT Report: cot-reports.com/commitments-of-traders-cot-reports-non-commercial-detailed/
Trade closed: stop reached
They do not want USOIL underneath 75ish
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