If the worst case was probably behind us on oil?
This autumn has been challenging for the engine of global growth. We can even talk about mini-crash on black gold since we lost almost 35%. Even if it's the 7th time it happened in 20 years. The oil has literally unscrewed and this has therefore weighed on the morale of investors and on the trend evolution of global growth to the point of having a slight sense of a pre-recession feeling. This decline was also not so trivial, in the sense that it was also the result and preceded by a year and a few months of rising. (from May 2017 until August 2018). This certainly exaggerated rise was motivated by the geopolitical tensions between Iran, and the USA, about the issue on nuclear management and also about the many US sanctions attributed to Iran which was only replicating to the lesser of American Bell. This recent decline is also the fruit of various diplomatic escapades between the USA and Saudi Arabia (the Khashoggi case).
As you can see from the oil graph, this initial bullish movement has been recorrected almost completely. We are on levels that have been heavily worked before the last two takeoffs (up and down). These are the thresholds of August 2016 ($41) and November 2017 ($55). Of these two levels, there is a crucial level of $47-$48 which constitutes a very important level of technical so-called Point of Control (POC). It is slightly below the global threshold of $50 per barrel. Which means that I see very well the oil bouncing at this level, given the various commercials compromises that are at the level of the producers and Exporters (OPEC), especially on the main issue that surrounds oil namely the supply and the Global demand. The excess supply has been created from all parts by two major Gulf countries, and producing countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. They even estimate, at $1 a barrel, they will always profit given their low production blow of Persian oil; Unlike the Schist one that is not refined. And of course, the North Americans do not share this idea of lowering the oil very low because it is the survival of the North American mining companies especially Canadian.
I therefore believe that there is a compromise on the negotiations and the various regulatory agreements established between these producer countries which are at risk of rebounding oil in the coming weeks, as everyone will gain its interest. But given that we have had a decrease of almost 35%, the market will not go off in a sudden upward. I opted for a stabilization scenario around the 47-$50, before definitively retesting the levels of the reversal of the bias that had preceded its fall; The threshold of $65. As oil is the engine of growth and that of inflation that goes in pairs, I, therefore see very badly the American government being passive on this issue. The FED, which wanted to increase interest rates, will have to wait in order to pursue its restrictive monetary policy since for the moment growth and inflation do not rhyme together because of the current evolution of oil.
As you can see from the oil graph, this initial bullish movement has been recorrected almost completely. We are on levels that have been heavily worked before the last two takeoffs (up and down). These are the thresholds of August 2016 ($41) and November 2017 ($55). Of these two levels, there is a crucial level of $47-$48 which constitutes a very important level of technical so-called Point of Control (POC). It is slightly below the global threshold of $50 per barrel. Which means that I see very well the oil bouncing at this level, given the various commercials compromises that are at the level of the producers and Exporters (OPEC), especially on the main issue that surrounds oil namely the supply and the Global demand. The excess supply has been created from all parts by two major Gulf countries, and producing countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. They even estimate, at $1 a barrel, they will always profit given their low production blow of Persian oil; Unlike the Schist one that is not refined. And of course, the North Americans do not share this idea of lowering the oil very low because it is the survival of the North American mining companies especially Canadian.
I therefore believe that there is a compromise on the negotiations and the various regulatory agreements established between these producer countries which are at risk of rebounding oil in the coming weeks, as everyone will gain its interest. But given that we have had a decrease of almost 35%, the market will not go off in a sudden upward. I opted for a stabilization scenario around the 47-$50, before definitively retesting the levels of the reversal of the bias that had preceded its fall; The threshold of $65. As oil is the engine of growth and that of inflation that goes in pairs, I, therefore see very badly the American government being passive on this issue. The FED, which wanted to increase interest rates, will have to wait in order to pursue its restrictive monetary policy since for the moment growth and inflation do not rhyme together because of the current evolution of oil.
Francois Abley
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