Crude oil trading plan
Updated
Last week, as data showed that the U.S. economy was gradually slowing down, U.S. stocks were mixed and bonds climbed, intensifying speculation that the Federal Reserve will end its interest rate hike. Crude oil prices continue to fall, internal and external oil prices are under pressure, short-term in the supply and demand side of no major sudden bearish situation, oil prices in the supply increase, demand prospects bleak double bearish impact continued to break the fall. Regardless of the technical factors to the oil price disturbance, it is expected that the next 4-6 weeks of oil prices will depend on the implementation rate of OPEC+ production cuts. If OPEC+ (especially Saudi Arabia) does not fulfill the production cut promised in early September, the oil price trading perspective is likely to return to the macro, the need for reference data, if OPEC+ (especially Saudi Arabia) in the November-December period to comply with the production cut, the oil price trading perspective will still return to supply demand, the data impact is only added.
Last Friday, as of the close of the morning, the settlement price of international crude oil futures closed sharply down more than 4%, which is also the largest one-day drop since nearly November, yesterday's low shock, a short rebound but the space is extremely limited, and the evening crude oil suddenly appeared a wave of sharp fall back, although in line with our short expectations, but below the 75-74 expected strong support band, The low fell to near 72 before stopping, or somewhat unexpected, although the rebound later turned over 73, but because of the extreme selling sentiment in the market, the daily line eventually closed a large negative line. However, from the perspective of the daily structure, now the crude oil is technically a downward trend, it is difficult to see the hope of reversing the rebound, 75-74 was directly broken, short-term panic, triggered the sell-off, but also the main reason for the decline in crude oil, after all, 75-74 is a dense area of early trading.
Crude oil technical analysis: crude oil last week five Yin line broke low to continue weak in line with expectations, the daily line after finishing back the previous double Yang line rebound space, with the daily line even Yin finishing momentum, the formation of a new low to 72.37 on Friday. The daily line continues to weaken, after breaking the low, the short-term will continue the unilateral weak move, and further release the low space. In the 4-hour chart step channel down, the previous rebound of 79.70 structural step high point was blocked and fell, and further extended to expand the downward space after breaking the low. A wave of Yin back withdrawal bias for weakness, intra-day rebound relying on yesterday's high point to do defense continue to look bearish, short term in the low volume may be accompanied by a step back correction, the overall downward trend, rebound short is the main idea. In summary, on Monday, it is suggested that the crude oil operation idea is mainly to step back low, supplemented by a rebound high, the short-term focus on 77.5-78.0 resistance above, and the short-term focus on 75.0-74.5 support below.
Last Friday, as of the close of the morning, the settlement price of international crude oil futures closed sharply down more than 4%, which is also the largest one-day drop since nearly November, yesterday's low shock, a short rebound but the space is extremely limited, and the evening crude oil suddenly appeared a wave of sharp fall back, although in line with our short expectations, but below the 75-74 expected strong support band, The low fell to near 72 before stopping, or somewhat unexpected, although the rebound later turned over 73, but because of the extreme selling sentiment in the market, the daily line eventually closed a large negative line. However, from the perspective of the daily structure, now the crude oil is technically a downward trend, it is difficult to see the hope of reversing the rebound, 75-74 was directly broken, short-term panic, triggered the sell-off, but also the main reason for the decline in crude oil, after all, 75-74 is a dense area of early trading.
Crude oil technical analysis: crude oil last week five Yin line broke low to continue weak in line with expectations, the daily line after finishing back the previous double Yang line rebound space, with the daily line even Yin finishing momentum, the formation of a new low to 72.37 on Friday. The daily line continues to weaken, after breaking the low, the short-term will continue the unilateral weak move, and further release the low space. In the 4-hour chart step channel down, the previous rebound of 79.70 structural step high point was blocked and fell, and further extended to expand the downward space after breaking the low. A wave of Yin back withdrawal bias for weakness, intra-day rebound relying on yesterday's high point to do defense continue to look bearish, short term in the low volume may be accompanied by a step back correction, the overall downward trend, rebound short is the main idea. In summary, on Monday, it is suggested that the crude oil operation idea is mainly to step back low, supplemented by a rebound high, the short-term focus on 77.5-78.0 resistance above, and the short-term focus on 75.0-74.5 support below.
Trade active
75.4buy tp77-77.5 sl 74.8Trade active
77.5 DoneTrade active
Perfect signal. CongratulationsTrade active
There is no trading opportunity today, we just need to wait for the next opportunity and make our account more plumpTrade active
The trajectory today was perfect and we had a lot of trading opportunitiesTrade active
Crude oil news analysis: On Monday (November 20) in the US market, crude oil prices traded near 77.60 US dollars/ounce, oil prices rebounded sharply on Friday night, basically recovering the previous trading day's nearly 4% loss, investors in the Opec side will increase the decision to cut production, which led to sharp fluctuations in oil prices. However, from the current performance of the crude oil market, it is clear that investors do not believe that the demand side is as strong as Opec and the International Energy Agency judge, on the contrary, the main view of the market generally believes that weak demand has become an important reason for this round of oil prices. This also puts Opec + in a more passive position than it was in the first half of the year, with another sharp drop in oil prices showing investors' anxiety about the outlook for the crude oil market. The near end of the crude oil market structure has begun to show a discount under the weakening supply and demand side and economic concerns, and there is no doubt that the pressure on oil prices is gradually increasing. The overall assessment is that Opec + has less and less room to step up beyond the current Saudi voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day. Investors are skeptical about whether Saudi Arabia can once again lead Opec to take more aggressive measures to restore market confidence, Saudi Arabia's existing voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels/day by the beginning of 2024 seems to have been defined in advance by the market as a necessary action, but so oil prices have not got out of the crisis for the time being, it can be seen that market confidence is at a very low position. In the end, it is necessary to wait for the 36th Opec and non-OPEC oil-producing countries to hold a ministerial meeting on November 26, Opec and non-OPEC oil-producing countries to hold a ministerial monitoring committee meeting, Saudi Arabia and Russia can join hands with the production reduction alliance to make the final decision, whether to improve market expectations this will become the most important factor affecting the crude oil market in the year.Crude oil technical analysis: crude oil last week dip up, the weekly cross small Yin K line closed flat, after the dip failed to close down, the end of the week, that is, last Friday formed a dip up, the daily line a mid-yang recovered some lost ground. Forming a tendency of Yang swallowing Yin. The close of the day was slightly higher, breaking the short-term trend of extremely weak decline, with twists and turns. 4-hour chart a wave of low even Yang rebound, the rebound space is slightly larger, does not belong to the very weak fall, but the overall also maintained in the downward trend channel. The short term may be a whipsaw oscillation. The 4-hour trend is still short, before not recovering the previous high of 79.70, the structure is still bearish, breaking through and then adjusting the idea, but the short-term rhythm repeatedly saw, in which the average indicator turned head. The small cycle rebound space is slightly larger, breaking the extremely weak unilateral move, turning to shock, and operating the card interval. In summary, the short-term operation of crude oil today is suggested to mainly step back low, supplemented by rebound high, above the short-term focus on 78.8-79.3 first-line resistance, below the short-term focus on 76.5-76.0 first-line support.
Trade active
Crude oil 76-76.5 buy tp78.5-79 sl75.5Trade active
Perfect day from now onTrade active
77-74.5 DoneTrade active
74.5-77 DoneTrade active
78-78.5sell tp76-75 SL79.8Trade active
76.8 sell tp76-75
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