Crude Oil as a crystal ball to the what's coming
When China re-open early February 2023, it was a sign of relief. Global markets beginning to show positivity.
Economies worldwide can now take a breather and be optimistic to forecast a recovery.
Several news outlets online hints on "dodging the recession bullet" and it great news to everyone, at times of turmoil.
Well, March 2023 is such a spoiler honestly. Why? US banking sector cracking and contagion effect creeping into other nations.
Credit Suisse came under spotlight this week. Oh that's bad, wait till you hear more about BNP Paribas in days/weeks to come.
US Government step in to provide blood supply for these troubled banks via BTFP. Even 11 banks stepped in to inject 30B into First Republic Bank.
Credit Suisse received lifeline from Swiss National Bank amounting to 50B Swiss Francs.
Now, energy (such as oil), is the key ingredient that drives growth. Economic expansion comes with rising oil prices, demand & supply.
In a span of 2 weeks, that is totally reversed. Russia cutting 500K bpd can't do nuts to prop oil prices up.
The Crude Oil market is pricing in a potential global economic collapse. What follows when there is a global scale crisis?
Unemployment, businesses close doors, falling income, less spending, budget cuts, etc. All the bad stuff.
Energy price gets cheap when there is falling demand. Lesser buying, lower prices. Just like C-19 pandemic times.
I do not wish bad stuff to befall people. However, I see what I see and I cannot deny it.
Bank runs will be in season in Q2 2023. The more lifeline money being injected into problematic banks, the more bank runs.
Why? Millions are waiting in line to take their money out. I read recently that credit line now are being tighten. Oh dear. Bail in?
By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
Economies worldwide can now take a breather and be optimistic to forecast a recovery.
Several news outlets online hints on "dodging the recession bullet" and it great news to everyone, at times of turmoil.
Well, March 2023 is such a spoiler honestly. Why? US banking sector cracking and contagion effect creeping into other nations.
Credit Suisse came under spotlight this week. Oh that's bad, wait till you hear more about BNP Paribas in days/weeks to come.
US Government step in to provide blood supply for these troubled banks via BTFP. Even 11 banks stepped in to inject 30B into First Republic Bank.
Credit Suisse received lifeline from Swiss National Bank amounting to 50B Swiss Francs.
Now, energy (such as oil), is the key ingredient that drives growth. Economic expansion comes with rising oil prices, demand & supply.
In a span of 2 weeks, that is totally reversed. Russia cutting 500K bpd can't do nuts to prop oil prices up.
The Crude Oil market is pricing in a potential global economic collapse. What follows when there is a global scale crisis?
Unemployment, businesses close doors, falling income, less spending, budget cuts, etc. All the bad stuff.
Energy price gets cheap when there is falling demand. Lesser buying, lower prices. Just like C-19 pandemic times.
I do not wish bad stuff to befall people. However, I see what I see and I cannot deny it.
Bank runs will be in season in Q2 2023. The more lifeline money being injected into problematic banks, the more bank runs.
Why? Millions are waiting in line to take their money out. I read recently that credit line now are being tighten. Oh dear. Bail in?
By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.