The Elliott wave theory suggests a bullish trend in oil prices, propelled further by geopolitical tensions and economic revitalization in major markets like China. The first Take Profit (TP) point is projected at $90.75 at the end of wave 3, followed by a second TP at $96.58, aligning with the broader market expectations of rising oil prices.
General Outlook:
The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has spurred global oil price increases due to potential Middle East energy production disruptions. Key oil producers in the region like Iran and Saudi Arabia are central to the market's stability. The 2023 oil market is set to see a supply rise of 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), primarily from the US, Iran, and Brazil, while analysts predict an average Brent price of $115 per barrel due to China's anticipated economic reopening post-Covid.
Fundamental Analysis:
The prevailing geopolitical tensions, combined with projected market trends and economic recovery in substantial consumer markets like China, form the crux of the fundamental analysis. This backdrop sets the stage for potential bullish behavior in oil prices, in accordance with the technical analysis.
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