Update on Oil Shorts

Expect the correction to be concluding in an ending diagonal formation as shown on chart.
There is still a mild chance to see <$39.3/66> in a spike of leg-e, though I don't think it will materialize.
Hold shots averaging $37.52 <36.70-38.40> for a 1.2 standard contract size to target $32.50
Add 30k short entries @ $39.30/40/50 (if / when seen).
If short entries at $39.30/40/50 are filled, take out 30k off position @ $37.80 to reduce risk.

Good Luck.
take Care & Stay Safe

Trade active

The correction appears to be making a leg "e" in the ending diagonal (see Chart). If it does, price projections could reach <$39.66-->$40.40> in Asian trading.
Its time to begin defending our holdings.

Risk Assimilation
The position is currently composed of 1.2 standard contract averaging $37.52 for a $10,000 account.
At current price ~ $39.00 this equates to a ~ -$1800 draw down = -18% on a $10,000 account

1- Amend limit (10k) sell entries in 10k sizes at each of the following levels $39.3/40/50/60/70 (50k) in all. TP @ $38.90.

2- IF/WHEN the above orders fill, place TP for 20k of the $37.52 position at $38.90. $38.90 is the average of the (($39.3/40/50/60/70) 5 lots + 2 lots @ ($37.52)). $38.90 is a also median where the hourly bollinger MA is located.

3- By going out at $38.90, for all (7) lots, the position size would have been reduced to 1 standard contract averaging $37.52, to a draw down = ~$1500 = -15% on a $10,000 account. which is back to the permissible risk requisite set for this position.

We will be repeating this process whenever risk rises > -15% on the account.

Why are We doing this ?
No one can tell if/when prices will go up or down. But definitely, EVERYONE, can tell that prices are bound to go up sometime & down sometime.

Our job is not to foretell direction. But to protect our holdings, and make absolutely sure that they are not leveraged (drawn down on) beyond -15/-20% at all times. This way we can control the situation around our holdings.

Patiently, this way we are also assured that when prices do go down, we will be in the position favorably placed & size ably placed in the direction favorable to us.

And finally because we had the discipline (No fear) and determination (single focus & concentration) to continue holding a sizable (maxed position) with regard to a $10,000 account, we stand rewarded to make a good (if not v.good) equity percentage - however small or large the move down is.

I believe that is how money is practically made. -No over trading, No stop loss risks or emotional trauma, -and trading only the fundamental direction of the "macro news situation", even when market volatility is countering it.

Take care & Stay safe

Trade active

All lots <39.30/40/50/60/70> (5 lots) filled.
Position size = 1.7 standard contracts, Position average = $38.10.
Risk on position @ $40 = ($40-$38.10=$1.9) / Standard contract.
Risk on position in terms of Dollars = $1900 X 1.7 contract size = -$3230 = -32.3% on $10,000 account. This is quite high, but manageable.

1- Place TP on all 5 lots <39.30/40/50/60/70> @ $38.60
2- Place TP on 4 average lots ($37.52) also @ 38.60
3- This should bring down the contract size to 0.8 of a standard contract
4- At $ 39.00, the 0.8 contract will be carrying risk = ($37.52-$39) = -$1500 X 0.8 = -$1200 = -12% on the $10,000 account. (back to risk requisite levels).
5- Don't place Stop losses.
6- Take TP on remaining position size to $34.00 ($3.5 profit / contract) = $2800 on the 0.8 contract = ~28% equity on $10,000
7- Currently, we are still holding a 1:1 Risk to reward investment. (-32% : 28%)

Take Care & Trade Safe

Trade active

TP @ $38.60 hit.
Position now reduced to 0.8 of 1 standard contract averaging $37.52.

At $40.00 total risk on position = (-$40+$37.52)= -$2.5 X 0.8 = -$2000 on a $10,000 account = -20%. At $39.00 Risk gets reduced to -$1200 = -12%.
As mentioned above:- between -15%&-12% is the normal requisite on risk for this position.

A negative momentum spike < Oversold recorded on the 5-min frame. Assuming market reversal is eminent, TP for the position remains @ $34.00

If there is another attempt at the $41.00 high next week, I will add (0.4) shorts to improve the shorting average, and proceed as described earlier to assimilate risk.

Take care & Stay safe.

Trade active

Market is still moving against the position, and I will assimilate more of the carried risk, or rather work to keep risk fixed at -20%

Currently holding 0.8 of 1 standard contract shorts averaging $37.52
Place limit sell orders at
10k @ $41.40
10k @ 41.50
10k @ 41.60
10k @ 41.70
10k @ 41.80
Position holdings will then rise to 1.3 standard contracts averaging $39.09, with overall risk @ $41.5 = (39-41.5) X 1.3 standard contract = ~ -$3250 = ~-32.5% on a $10000 account.

ONLY IF ABOVE ORDERS FILL Take TP for <$41.40 - $41.80> at $40.40
Take TP for 0.2 contract averaging $ 37.52 also at $40.40
position then falls back to 0.6 standard contracts with total risk @ $41 = -$2088 =~-20%.

If market continues to rise, the next zone for assimilation will be <$42.30-$42.70> to assimilate 0.2 of the contract size. (contract size becomes 0.4)

Then Next assimilation zone comes in at <$43.40-$43.80> again to assimilate 0.2 of the contract size. (contract size becomes 0.2)

Finally <$44.30-$44.80> the contract here becomes fully liquidated at Break even.

Sour job. But safe, because the risk always stays fixed between ~ <-20%to -30%>
This weeks mid pivot level is $44.60, so theoretically, position would have been closed and out of within a week.

On the bright side, it is possible that the market is doing a double top @ $40.80, that's this week's lower pivot or even $41.70 (the next pivot after $40.80), and then it would turn down from there to ($37-$35) this week's pivot low levels.

So that's the whole plan of action.
Almost forgot to add keep Tp currently for 0.8 contract size @ $34.(June's 1st low pivot) NO SLs.

Take Care & Stay Safe

Trade active

Amend (10k) entry short limits from < $41.40-> $41.80 > zone to the < $42.30, $42.40, $43.50, $43.60, $43.70 > each entry at 10k to a total of 50k in all.
Position average becomes $39.43 to a size = 1.3 contracts with average risk @ $42 = -3340 ~ -33% on a $10,000 account

IF SHORT ENTRIES FILL, place TP for <$42.30->$42.70> at $41.05
Also place TP for 0.2 contract size ($37.52) at $41.05
position size then diminishes to 0.6 contract averaging $37.52 at a total risk -$3000 = -30% at price level $42.50
DON'T PLACE SLs
TP for remaining (0.6) contract size remains at $34.

Take Care & Trade Safe

Trade active

Price currently $38.00.
Time to start making some money at last
Raise Tp on remaining 0.8 contract to $35.35
once price breaks $36.00 take SL down to entry + comm.
Position entry average =$37.52

Take Care & Stay Safe

Trade active

I am planning to improve my short portfolio as follows:-In case there is a spike in prices (wave-4)
Sll 10k @ 38.80
Sell 10k @ $39.30
Sell 10k @ $39.60
In case there is a spike in prices (wave-4)
Sell 10k @ 40.30
Sell 10k @ 40.50
Already holding 0.8 contract short averaging $37.52.
If above positions fill, size increases to 1.3 / standard contract, averaging $39.
Risk at $41 becomes -$2600 = -26% on a $10,000 account.
Raise Target to @ $35.60 (1.382 fib ext) / or $34.80 (1.618 fib ext)
once price breaks $36.00 take SL down to entry + comm.

Take care & Stay Safe

Trade active

shorts at $38.80 & $39.30 filled
Position average raised to $37.826 for a 1 complete standard contract
Tps remain the same $35.60/$34.80. Risk calculations same.
keep remaining sell limit orders in place, but amend 10k @ $40.50 to become $40.40

Take Care & Stay Safe

Trade active

Holding 1 standard contract short averaging $37.826
Add Short Limits as follows
10k@ 39.90
10k@ 39.80
10k@ 39.70
10k@ 39.60

If filled position average becomes $38.37 for 1.4 standard contract- Risk at $40 is -23% (-$2300). Risk @ 440.50 = -30% (-$2982)
Target same @ $32.50

Take care & stay safe.

Trade active

<$39.60-$39.80> filled, to a contract size = 1.3 averaging $38.25
Remove 10k short entry @ $39.90
Risk assessment remains as outlined above. Target remains @ $32.50

Correction:-
"440.50" above should read "40.50" Sorry for the Typo
Take care & Stay Safe

Trade active

The position has reached risk @ $40.50 = -30% for 1.3 contract size on a $10,000 account. So I will work to assimilate 1/3 the risk.

Place Tp for short holdings $39.60-$39.70-$39.80 @ $39.20
Place Tp for 1 x 10k short acquired at $37.826 also at $39.20

$39.20 is y'day's low, and the lower 1HR BB.

If filled contract size gets reduced to 0.9 at 37.826 average.
Risk @ $40 becomes -$1962 = ~20% on 10,000 account

Targets for 0.9 contract remains the same @ $32.50

Take Care & Stay Safe.

Trade active

There is a Bear Motive on the 1HR chart now doing a wave-3
Remove TPs @ $39.20
Holding 1.3 contract shorts averaging $37.826 targeting $32.50
Add Short limits @
10k @ $40.10
10k @ $39.90
All to same target $32.50

Take care & Stay Safe

Trade active

10k @ $39.90 filled to an overall average $37.97 for 1.4 contract size.
take the 10k @ $40.10 limit short down to $39.25
TP for all remains @ $32.50

Take Care & Stay Safe.

Summerset

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