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So without further due. Keep it short/simple and to the point.
USOIL monthly strategic outlook (NEW) IMPORTANT: this is speculative. results are not guaranteed. this is not trading advice. always do you own due dill.
Ok guys, WTI trading at 23 USD/bbl right now after steep losses past few weeks.
This market is unlikely to reach balance anytime soon, as currently supply is a lot higher compared to demand. Most of the ground-based oil storage is running at full capacity now and floating storage is also almost maxed now.
Finally, corona will induce delayed impact on supply chains, therefore I expect demand for crude to reduce by up to 50% quarter over quarter, this in turn will have negative impact on price mid-term.
Balance price will likely get set near 17 USD/bbl, so more losses ahead before we reach a a balance.
12 USD/bbl is also a possible outcome, if market remains unbalanced for more than 3-6 months, this is an extreme outcome, but currently hard to estimate corona impact going forward.
Longer-term, 32-38 will get re-tested, but this may take literally 12-24 months. So with current data, I expect oil prices to remain subdued for at least another 6-9 months.
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