CRUDE OIL ON A SUPER BEAR TREND CYCLE? INSIGHT FULLY EXPLAINED!
Updated
If you have been paying attention to oil then you would have noticed prices dropped from $76 to $54 in the space of a month and even more impressive is the very recent drop of $6+ in the span of around 24hrs, which was a jaw dropper for me. Just 2 months ago when market was still slowly climbing uphill I had outlined support areas for when market goes into retracement, which can also serve as resistance areas depending on your outlook. Little did I know we were soon to go into a huge and fast bear trend. Now as market has been dropping, it has smashed through much (though not all) of my support/resistance lines which are usually depicted with yellow lines on my chart.
So upon observing this major drop, I had to take a closer look at market beyond the daily here to see what weekly and monthly depicted and I saw the bigger picture in motion. Prices were exactly at these levels in November last year so current prices is not a coincidence. Market is following its steps back and as a super bear trend, the chances of market to continue on path to its history looks very much likely.
Bear trend was also confirmed on the weekly with the double top that played out when market hit mid 70s twice before finally taking an official downturn. You can see both tops are in alignment where the candle bodies are aligned, this is highlighted by my pink line in the chart and also labled.
Double Top: The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. It appears as two consecutive peaks of approximately the same price on a price-versus-time chart of a market. The two peaks are separated by a minimum in price, a valley. The price level of this minimum is called the neck line of the formation. The formation is completed and confirmed when the price falls below the neck line, indicating that further price decline is imminent or highly likely. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_top_and_double_bottom
Now on the weekly based on it's history, the bottom of current support is $56 with the wick down to $54, hence why we see market swimming at current prices, but I believe this will not hold and after some retracement going up that is in high order, market will continue on its sinking path and the next support is at $45 with the candle wick all the way down at $41. After this, next support is $33 with wick all the way down to $25 and this ladies and gents is where the super bull trend cycle originally started it's journey.
Also, looking at the CM_Ult_Macd indicator, this was first to highlight the bear trend, first on the daily, then weekly and past few days the monthly MacD just broke into a bear too, next indicator is the CM_Ultimate_MA, this usually depicts bear trend slower than the MacD but it is bear on the weekly, yet to depict on the monthly. Also prices are inside ichimoku cloud on the monthly which does not look good for the upside while the weekly and daily view have prices under the cloud which indicates market to be in bear trend on those outlooks. So it would seem prices are pretty much bear and the only thing barely holding prices up is monthly outlook.
Now for the retracement going up(which is in high order), we may possibly see $58/59, but if a wick is decided to form on the monthly view it may take us into the 60s but would stick to the lower end of 60s. This retracement may or may not play out, so not guaranteed but hopefully it does so I can get a better sell position for more profit as I unfortunately exited my sell at $58 prior to seeing the bigger picture at play.
Now I charted this using weekly outlook to show the double top and why market sits at current prices but will shortly update with the bigger picture that ties everything together, which is the monthly view. Here you should better see why the target prices are chosen on a further drop so stay tuned.
Here is a chart i made putting together with a few well-crafted indicators by some great creators on tradingview. It allows you to tail trail oil market intraday on the 3 minute view. I hope many of you find this helpful, i use it to trade myself :)
tradingview.com/chart/rKIgnLER/
Here is a link to understand better what this little tail trailer will be showing you.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_top_and_double_bottom
Furthers Tips;
Alternative to trading Crude Oil is Brent Oil, this market moves like an identical twin to Crude they mirror images of eachother. Polar opposite to both markets is Natural Gas, this market moves in the complete opposite to Crude and Brent atleast 90% of the time so although I am yet to analyze NG market, it has not failed to meet expectations in contrast to crude movement in the past year of my observations.
Also Apple Market is another market I've been trading the past 2 months, prices have been sinking and I see a bottom of 160s which should playout within the next 4months so watch that space closely. You can either get in on further drop or if not confident then wait for bottom and get in to buy market up when it gets back to bull trend.
If you have enough funds and want to be like Warren Buffett, invest and HODL for the long term, then look for markets that have bottomed out, get in and hold for years because the only way is up, one of many I spotted is Platinum, which i will link my chart to this post, feel free to check it out.
Oh and the period for crypto to take a turn for the upside is upon us again so look into that. If you notice, many markets are on a superbear cycle and I predicted beginning of this year that markets are due for a crash and once this happens, much of the money will jump into crypto. Now call me intuitive but I see this has started playing out in the past few months. Look at major stock markets! If it helps, I am a hodler in Tron, Bitcoin, Ripple and few others via binance platform.
DISCLAIMER;
Do set stop losses when trading but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire. IF YOU SUPPORT MY IDEAS THEN LIKE, FOLLOW & SHARE.
So upon observing this major drop, I had to take a closer look at market beyond the daily here to see what weekly and monthly depicted and I saw the bigger picture in motion. Prices were exactly at these levels in November last year so current prices is not a coincidence. Market is following its steps back and as a super bear trend, the chances of market to continue on path to its history looks very much likely.
Bear trend was also confirmed on the weekly with the double top that played out when market hit mid 70s twice before finally taking an official downturn. You can see both tops are in alignment where the candle bodies are aligned, this is highlighted by my pink line in the chart and also labled.
Double Top: The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. It appears as two consecutive peaks of approximately the same price on a price-versus-time chart of a market. The two peaks are separated by a minimum in price, a valley. The price level of this minimum is called the neck line of the formation. The formation is completed and confirmed when the price falls below the neck line, indicating that further price decline is imminent or highly likely. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_top_and_double_bottom
Now on the weekly based on it's history, the bottom of current support is $56 with the wick down to $54, hence why we see market swimming at current prices, but I believe this will not hold and after some retracement going up that is in high order, market will continue on its sinking path and the next support is at $45 with the candle wick all the way down at $41. After this, next support is $33 with wick all the way down to $25 and this ladies and gents is where the super bull trend cycle originally started it's journey.
Also, looking at the CM_Ult_Macd indicator, this was first to highlight the bear trend, first on the daily, then weekly and past few days the monthly MacD just broke into a bear too, next indicator is the CM_Ultimate_MA, this usually depicts bear trend slower than the MacD but it is bear on the weekly, yet to depict on the monthly. Also prices are inside ichimoku cloud on the monthly which does not look good for the upside while the weekly and daily view have prices under the cloud which indicates market to be in bear trend on those outlooks. So it would seem prices are pretty much bear and the only thing barely holding prices up is monthly outlook.
Now for the retracement going up(which is in high order), we may possibly see $58/59, but if a wick is decided to form on the monthly view it may take us into the 60s but would stick to the lower end of 60s. This retracement may or may not play out, so not guaranteed but hopefully it does so I can get a better sell position for more profit as I unfortunately exited my sell at $58 prior to seeing the bigger picture at play.
Now I charted this using weekly outlook to show the double top and why market sits at current prices but will shortly update with the bigger picture that ties everything together, which is the monthly view. Here you should better see why the target prices are chosen on a further drop so stay tuned.
Here is a chart i made putting together with a few well-crafted indicators by some great creators on tradingview. It allows you to tail trail oil market intraday on the 3 minute view. I hope many of you find this helpful, i use it to trade myself :)
tradingview.com/chart/rKIgnLER/
Here is a link to understand better what this little tail trailer will be showing you.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_top_and_double_bottom
Furthers Tips;
Alternative to trading Crude Oil is Brent Oil, this market moves like an identical twin to Crude they mirror images of eachother. Polar opposite to both markets is Natural Gas, this market moves in the complete opposite to Crude and Brent atleast 90% of the time so although I am yet to analyze NG market, it has not failed to meet expectations in contrast to crude movement in the past year of my observations.
Also Apple Market is another market I've been trading the past 2 months, prices have been sinking and I see a bottom of 160s which should playout within the next 4months so watch that space closely. You can either get in on further drop or if not confident then wait for bottom and get in to buy market up when it gets back to bull trend.
If you have enough funds and want to be like Warren Buffett, invest and HODL for the long term, then look for markets that have bottomed out, get in and hold for years because the only way is up, one of many I spotted is Platinum, which i will link my chart to this post, feel free to check it out.
Oh and the period for crypto to take a turn for the upside is upon us again so look into that. If you notice, many markets are on a superbear cycle and I predicted beginning of this year that markets are due for a crash and once this happens, much of the money will jump into crypto. Now call me intuitive but I see this has started playing out in the past few months. Look at major stock markets! If it helps, I am a hodler in Tron, Bitcoin, Ripple and few others via binance platform.
DISCLAIMER;
Do set stop losses when trading but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire. IF YOU SUPPORT MY IDEAS THEN LIKE, FOLLOW & SHARE.
Note
As stated, here is the larger view of market on the 1 month view (1M).You can see here, the CM_Ult_MacD just turned bearish and you can better see the bottoms outlined for once further drop commences.
Note
P.S. on the external link for double-top , just scroll down some to get to the technical analysis chart, some very informative tech analysis terms and its meanings if you hover/click them.This should help you understand better how to read the oil tail trailer intrader chart link I created and provided in despcription.
Note
1 Month view with candlestick pattern identification and active link to view and trail yourself; tradingview.com/chart/rKIgnLER/ 
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