OPEC+ decided to accelerate the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month, with production to increase to 411,000 barrels per day in June, triggering market concerns about oversupply. At the same time, the US tariffs raised concerns about falling demand, causing international oil prices to fall to their lowest level in four years on Monday. Although prices stabilized slightly on Tuesday, the overall outlook is still hit by the double blow of OPEC+ policy adjustments and global economic uncertainty.
International oil prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday, but they are still at a four-year low. Earlier, OPEC+ announced that it would further increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which is the second consecutive month of expansion of production capacity, triggering market concerns about oversupply.
Brent crude futures rose $0.77 to $61.05 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $57.93, both rebounding slightly, but still close to the lowest level since February 2021.
The production increase involves eight OPEC+ member countries. According to market surveys, OPEC+ has decided to increase production by a total of 960,000 barrels per day from April to June, equivalent to 44% of the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction since 2022. If member countries fail to effectively implement quotas, OPEC+ may completely cancel the voluntary production cuts by the end of October.
"If the current execution is not improved, the production cut agreement may be completely lifted." - OPEC+ source
At the same time, US shale oil companies are also reassessing their production plans. Diamondback Energy lowered its 2025 production forecast on Monday, saying that OPEC+'s policy changes and global economic uncertainty are pushing the US oil and gas industry to a "turning point."
"The weak global economic outlook, coupled with OPEC+'s production increases, puts the US crude oil industry under pressure." - Diamondback spokesman
US government policies have also exacerbated the market's tense atmosphere. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump's tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation policies will bring long-term investment momentum to the US economy. He stressed that the U.S. financial market is "anti-fragile" enough to cope with short-term fluctuations.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its interest rate meeting on Wednesday because tariffs have increased uncertainty in the economic outlook.
Investment banks have also lowered their forecasts for future oil prices. Barclays Bank on Monday lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 by $4 to $70 per barrel and set its forecast for 2026 at $62, citing "challenging fundamentals", increased trade concerns and changes in OPEC+ production strategies.
"Fundamental uncertainty is still increasing, and the road ahead will be more bumpy." - Barclays Commodity Strategy Team
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of U.S. crude oil (WTI) shows that prices are currently running near a key support level of $57 per barrel. This position is an important technical support area since 2021. If it falls below this point, it may further drop to $55 or even lower.
The relative strength index (RSI) has approached the oversold range, and there is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short term, but the overall trend is still bearish. If the resistance above $60 is not effectively broken, the rebound height of oil prices may be limited, and the market needs to be vigilant about the risk of continued downward movement.
OPEC+'s decision to increase production was intended to stabilize the market, but it has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the short term. Against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth and sluggish demand in Asian countries, this strategy may lead to long-term pressure on prices.
U.S. oil companies are being forced to re-examine their production capacity strategies, and the market may witness a new round of industry consolidation. Investors need to pay attention to the reactions of various countries to OPEC+'s new strategy, especially under the premise that global demand has not yet recovered significantly, the recovery of the crude oil market may take longer.
USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL
International oil prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday, but they are still at a four-year low. Earlier, OPEC+ announced that it would further increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which is the second consecutive month of expansion of production capacity, triggering market concerns about oversupply.
Brent crude futures rose $0.77 to $61.05 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $57.93, both rebounding slightly, but still close to the lowest level since February 2021.
The production increase involves eight OPEC+ member countries. According to market surveys, OPEC+ has decided to increase production by a total of 960,000 barrels per day from April to June, equivalent to 44% of the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction since 2022. If member countries fail to effectively implement quotas, OPEC+ may completely cancel the voluntary production cuts by the end of October.
"If the current execution is not improved, the production cut agreement may be completely lifted." - OPEC+ source
At the same time, US shale oil companies are also reassessing their production plans. Diamondback Energy lowered its 2025 production forecast on Monday, saying that OPEC+'s policy changes and global economic uncertainty are pushing the US oil and gas industry to a "turning point."
"The weak global economic outlook, coupled with OPEC+'s production increases, puts the US crude oil industry under pressure." - Diamondback spokesman
US government policies have also exacerbated the market's tense atmosphere. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump's tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation policies will bring long-term investment momentum to the US economy. He stressed that the U.S. financial market is "anti-fragile" enough to cope with short-term fluctuations.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its interest rate meeting on Wednesday because tariffs have increased uncertainty in the economic outlook.
Investment banks have also lowered their forecasts for future oil prices. Barclays Bank on Monday lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 by $4 to $70 per barrel and set its forecast for 2026 at $62, citing "challenging fundamentals", increased trade concerns and changes in OPEC+ production strategies.
"Fundamental uncertainty is still increasing, and the road ahead will be more bumpy." - Barclays Commodity Strategy Team
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of U.S. crude oil (WTI) shows that prices are currently running near a key support level of $57 per barrel. This position is an important technical support area since 2021. If it falls below this point, it may further drop to $55 or even lower.
The relative strength index (RSI) has approached the oversold range, and there is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short term, but the overall trend is still bearish. If the resistance above $60 is not effectively broken, the rebound height of oil prices may be limited, and the market needs to be vigilant about the risk of continued downward movement.
OPEC+'s decision to increase production was intended to stabilize the market, but it has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the short term. Against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth and sluggish demand in Asian countries, this strategy may lead to long-term pressure on prices.
U.S. oil companies are being forced to re-examine their production capacity strategies, and the market may witness a new round of industry consolidation. Investors need to pay attention to the reactions of various countries to OPEC+'s new strategy, especially under the premise that global demand has not yet recovered significantly, the recovery of the crude oil market may take longer.
USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL 
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Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.