USOIL - Large Scale Distribution at Play
Updated
WTI has been steadily appreciating in price since May 2020 with the peak being reached on 08-Mar-2022 at 129.42/bbl. Price swept the critical highs of 1114.8/BBL twice then retracted into its current range.
My previous write up on the asset was bullish with continued upside potential up to $140$. Before it got there I was expecting a sweep below the range low at 992.96/BBL before the move higher takes place. We are at that point right now. The sweep under the range occurred on 14-Jul-2022.
From a weekly perspective, the price is trapped in the range as outlined between $129.42 high and $92.96 low.
There are two options, the price continues to trade within the range or price drops below the range toward the $60 level. I prefer the latter scenario as I believe the 28-Feb-2022 and the 07-Mar-2022 weekly candles are exhaustion candles where institutions offloaded the majority of their long positions. A meaningful retrace is expected despite all the geopolitical turmoil as the risks in my opinion are already priced in.
My previous write up on the asset was bullish with continued upside potential up to $140$. Before it got there I was expecting a sweep below the range low at 992.96/BBL before the move higher takes place. We are at that point right now. The sweep under the range occurred on 14-Jul-2022.
From a weekly perspective, the price is trapped in the range as outlined between $129.42 high and $92.96 low.
There are two options, the price continues to trade within the range or price drops below the range toward the $60 level. I prefer the latter scenario as I believe the 28-Feb-2022 and the 07-Mar-2022 weekly candles are exhaustion candles where institutions offloaded the majority of their long positions. A meaningful retrace is expected despite all the geopolitical turmoil as the risks in my opinion are already priced in.
Note
Looks like the analysis from last summer is coming to fruition.Note
WTI still looking heavy. There is a very good chance of price will be reaching for 54-57$ level.Note
Price reached down to 63.61 before reversing toward $85+/bbl. June 13 prediction has not come to fruition for now.
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