Technical analysis update: USOIL/WTI oil (30th November 2021)
Updated
In our previous idea we noted that we saw short-term and medium-term headwinds for further rise in the price of oil due to ongoing politics between the U.S. and OPEC. We also stated that we expected the OPEC to take countermeasures in response to release of strategic oil reserves by the U.S. and its allies. We await tomorrow's OPEC meeting (and with it more insight into the mentioned countermeasures) which we expect to bolster the bullish case for oil in the long-term. We expect these measures to come in the form of less production quotas for cartel members.
Price of USOIL fell over 21% within the last 36 days. At the moment, technical indicators point to oversold conditions in the oil markets. We think that the current price is extremely attractive for a long position (re)entry. However, we are very cautious as it is possible that the U.S. and its allies will take actions to offset measures taken by the OPEC. If this is to happen, then we expect the price to continue lower towards 65 USD per barrel.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is oversold. MACD continues to develop bearish structure with no signs of flattening. Stochastic is also bearish. DM+ and DM- indicate a bearish trend with ADX suggesting its strengthening. Overall daily time frame is very bearish. However, some indicators reached an oversold condition already which suggests that end of correction might be in sight. Though, all depends on further measures by the U.S. and OPEC.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. Similarly, Stochastic and MACD are also bearish. DM+ and DM- show bearish condition, however, ADX continues to decline which suggests that trend of higher degree is weakening. It is possible that the price will move in range for a while before a new trend will begin.
Support and resistance
Major resistance level sits at 85.39 USD while the major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Short-term resistance appears at 69.60 USD. Resistance 1 is at 74.21 USD, Resistance 2 is at 75.47 USD and then Resistance 3 is at 76.95 USD. Strong support also appears at 65 USD from a psychological standpoint.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Price of USOIL fell over 21% within the last 36 days. At the moment, technical indicators point to oversold conditions in the oil markets. We think that the current price is extremely attractive for a long position (re)entry. However, we are very cautious as it is possible that the U.S. and its allies will take actions to offset measures taken by the OPEC. If this is to happen, then we expect the price to continue lower towards 65 USD per barrel.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is oversold. MACD continues to develop bearish structure with no signs of flattening. Stochastic is also bearish. DM+ and DM- indicate a bearish trend with ADX suggesting its strengthening. Overall daily time frame is very bearish. However, some indicators reached an oversold condition already which suggests that end of correction might be in sight. Though, all depends on further measures by the U.S. and OPEC.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. Similarly, Stochastic and MACD are also bearish. DM+ and DM- show bearish condition, however, ADX continues to decline which suggests that trend of higher degree is weakening. It is possible that the price will move in range for a while before a new trend will begin.
Support and resistance
Major resistance level sits at 85.39 USD while the major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Short-term resistance appears at 69.60 USD. Resistance 1 is at 74.21 USD, Resistance 2 is at 75.47 USD and then Resistance 3 is at 76.95 USD. Strong support also appears at 65 USD from a psychological standpoint.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
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Idea was updated in the following post: 
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