USOIL: Sideways for 1-3 months or more
Updated
Bullish bias on this one, we can accumulate longs at the bottom of the range. Considering the high cost of holding longs in Oil, you could play short term swings as well, but I'd reccomend closing longs partially at the top of the range only, in case we do get the breakout of the monthly resistance to the upside. This could lead to significant gains in oil prices during this year, or next year.
Right now, the scenario is as follows: sellers stepped in on Friday, we have OPEC news on the 27th, but fundamentals favor dollar weakness going into year end (and maybe even longer term than that, judging by the Fed's inability to hike rates, and maybe even consider negative rates in the future).
Technicals tell me to wait for 3 more bars, and then enter longs if there is a loss of bearish momentum. I'd buy above the day open on day #3, risking a drop to 42.69, and then adding on close, if day #4 moves above the previous day close. If 42.69 is hit, that poses a more serious threat to the bottom of the range being the 42.30-42.70 zone, but in the big scheme of things, it could pave the way for an oversold dip to manifest itself, giving us a buy signal on strength.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Right now, the scenario is as follows: sellers stepped in on Friday, we have OPEC news on the 27th, but fundamentals favor dollar weakness going into year end (and maybe even longer term than that, judging by the Fed's inability to hike rates, and maybe even consider negative rates in the future).
Technicals tell me to wait for 3 more bars, and then enter longs if there is a loss of bearish momentum. I'd buy above the day open on day #3, risking a drop to 42.69, and then adding on close, if day #4 moves above the previous day close. If 42.69 is hit, that poses a more serious threat to the bottom of the range being the 42.30-42.70 zone, but in the big scheme of things, it could pave the way for an oversold dip to manifest itself, giving us a buy signal on strength.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Trade active
Went long at 45.60, stop 44.93, looks like we can break the weekly resistance now.Note
(entry was exactly 3 days after the publication, this is a valid trade signal now)Note
I closed half after we hit the blue rectangle aboev (monthly mode resistance), holding the rest in case we do break above it. There is enough time to break it by the end of this month, so it's a possibility. No rate hike until Nov/Dec also plays nicely with this scenario.Note
I bought back my half position with stop at my entry price, for a risk free trade, at 46.62, after closing at 47.
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