End of Month Review
Looking at the chart:
1.Monthly: Looks very up, but it could be the 'Bump and Run' pattern, which signals a reversal.
2. Weekly: Symmetrical triangle suggests price could go either way.
3. Daily: Same as weekly
4. 4h: Bullish pennant
Conclusion: Inconclusive, could be bullish.
"Fundamentals"
A: The case for bull:
The war
Production shortfall from OPEC+
Incoming driving and travelling season
Blah blah blah
B: The case for bear:
Higher price less demand
Looming recession
Iran, Venezuela, Canada, Texas....
Blah blah blah
All of those so-called 'fundamentals' above are irrelevant, full stop, because 'paper demand' for oil has always greatly outstripped real, physical demand. That's why Smart money can control the market. In addition, OPEC+ love to exercise their monopoly and pricing power. If they want, they can drop oil down to $60 tomorrow, to flush out higher cost competitors. However, their game now is not to do that yet, as a more dangerous enemy, the green movement, needs to be squashed first. It might sound illogical, because high oil price might drive people to alternatives, but it's not, for the near term at least.
In short, we're at the mercy of Smart money and/or OPEC. Don't imagine price will go to the moon, but it's not going to 50 anytime soon, either.
From a trained economist, who is fluent in finance and banking lingo, the above analysis seems low-brow. But I can't be bothered to tart it up.🤣
1.Monthly: Looks very up, but it could be the 'Bump and Run' pattern, which signals a reversal.
2. Weekly: Symmetrical triangle suggests price could go either way.
3. Daily: Same as weekly
4. 4h: Bullish pennant
Conclusion: Inconclusive, could be bullish.
"Fundamentals"
A: The case for bull:
The war
Production shortfall from OPEC+
Incoming driving and travelling season
Blah blah blah
B: The case for bear:
Higher price less demand
Looming recession
Iran, Venezuela, Canada, Texas....
Blah blah blah
All of those so-called 'fundamentals' above are irrelevant, full stop, because 'paper demand' for oil has always greatly outstripped real, physical demand. That's why Smart money can control the market. In addition, OPEC+ love to exercise their monopoly and pricing power. If they want, they can drop oil down to $60 tomorrow, to flush out higher cost competitors. However, their game now is not to do that yet, as a more dangerous enemy, the green movement, needs to be squashed first. It might sound illogical, because high oil price might drive people to alternatives, but it's not, for the near term at least.
In short, we're at the mercy of Smart money and/or OPEC. Don't imagine price will go to the moon, but it's not going to 50 anytime soon, either.
From a trained economist, who is fluent in finance and banking lingo, the above analysis seems low-brow. But I can't be bothered to tart it up.🤣
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