Black Swan - The Strait of Hormuz
Updated
Speculative Idea for USOIL/Macro:
- Tensions in the Middle East gaining momentum, as Isareli security forces clash with Palestinian protestors on the Temple Mount holy land. Al-Aqsa Mosque, built upon the remnants of the Temple of Solomon.
- Iran progressing their space program, allowing ICBM technology.
- Israel blamed for cyberattacks that sabotaged Iran's nuclear facility, causing a 'possible minor explosion'.
- US fires warning shot at Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz.
- "A US Coast Guard ship fired warning shots at Iranian boats that came close to American naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon says".
- "The US Navy vessels were escorting USS Georgia, a guided-missile submarine, as it transited the Strait of Hormuz".
- "A third of the world's liquefied natural gas and almost 25% of total global oil consumption passes through the strait, making it a highly important strategic location for international trade".
2 Thoughts:
(A) Cyberattacks on nuclear facilities a threat.
(B) Why is the US missile submarine there?
Geopolitical operators diligently working to squeeze the oil supply chain. Could this be a Suez Canal v2, following the Colonial pipeline cyberattack, or the beginning of something more?
GLHF
- DPT
- Tensions in the Middle East gaining momentum, as Isareli security forces clash with Palestinian protestors on the Temple Mount holy land. Al-Aqsa Mosque, built upon the remnants of the Temple of Solomon.
- Iran progressing their space program, allowing ICBM technology.
- Israel blamed for cyberattacks that sabotaged Iran's nuclear facility, causing a 'possible minor explosion'.
- US fires warning shot at Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz.
- "A US Coast Guard ship fired warning shots at Iranian boats that came close to American naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon says".
- "The US Navy vessels were escorting USS Georgia, a guided-missile submarine, as it transited the Strait of Hormuz".
- "A third of the world's liquefied natural gas and almost 25% of total global oil consumption passes through the strait, making it a highly important strategic location for international trade".
2 Thoughts:
(A) Cyberattacks on nuclear facilities a threat.
(B) Why is the US missile submarine there?
Geopolitical operators diligently working to squeeze the oil supply chain. Could this be a Suez Canal v2, following the Colonial pipeline cyberattack, or the beginning of something more?
GLHF
- DPT
Trade active
Colonial pipeline suffered a cyberattack.Result: "Gas Flowing 5 MPH Will Take Two Weeks to Reach New York Once Pipeline Is Reopened Fuel on Colonial system will take 15 days to hit New York area Gasoline shortages are occurring from U.S. South to East Coast"
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Iraq raises the price of oil exports to the US, while lowering prices for Asia, while offering to buy stake in Exxon' major oilfield. The offer was in oil."To generate more revenue, Iraq plans to increase light production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to reach 1.1 million bpd."
Speculation:
Commodity squeeze is underway. The false money printed by the Fed is being rejected, and the run on US assets is beginning.
Global actors are beginning to exit the USD financial system, and are moving toward trading based on tangible assets.
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the trap is "lose your unemployment benefits if you dont go to work"... How can I get to work if I have no gas?Trade active
Hamas fires rockets into Tel Aviv residential area from Gaza.Trans-Israel pipeline in Ashkelon damaged.
Perhaps this Black Swan will be even greater... Yom Kippur War II?
Note
Israel-Palestine conflict escalating. Is this irrelevant to markets? Bulls seem to think so.Prelude to another oil related event? I speculate so.
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Appears that retail is now pricing in the oil shortage (even though the Colonial pipeline has been resumed). A oil related black swan event now would cause some panic IMO.
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Colonial pipeline suffering network issues right after their cyberattack. Perfect timing!
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