From a geopolitical perspective, Israel's military strikes against Iran have instantly intensified tensions in the Middle East. As the world's third-largest oil producer, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz—a key global oil transportation corridor through which approximately 40% of the world's crude oil is shipped. Markets are now highly concerned that Israel's attacks could prompt Iran to blockade the strait or target tanker routes in the Persian Gulf, potentially disrupting oil supplies. This fear of supply risks has rapidly pushed up crude oil prices, serving as a major factor behind the recent oil price surge. However, if the conflict eases in the future, upward pressure on oil prices may subside.
In terms of supply and demand dynamics, the global summer season is currently the peak period for oil consumption. In the U.S., increased self-driving travel, busy logistics transportation, and the gradual recovery of global shipping and manufacturing have all driven a rapid rise in crude oil demand. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories have continued to decline significantly, with gasoline and diesel consumption hitting new highs, further fueling market concerns about tight oil supplies. Although OPEC+ announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, the actual output increase has been much lower than market expectations. With limited supply growth and accelerating inventory drawdowns, oil prices have been further pushed up. However, if OPEC+ significantly increases production in the future and alleviates the tight supply situation, oil prices may correct.
Considering various factors, the future trend of crude oil prices remains difficult to predict. If geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East further deteriorate and Iran takes extreme measures such as blockading the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are likely to continue rising sharply. Conversely, if the conflict eases and OPEC+'s production increase is effective, leading to an adequate crude oil supply, oil prices may decline.
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
USOIL BUY72~73
SL:70
TP1:74~75
In terms of supply and demand dynamics, the global summer season is currently the peak period for oil consumption. In the U.S., increased self-driving travel, busy logistics transportation, and the gradual recovery of global shipping and manufacturing have all driven a rapid rise in crude oil demand. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories have continued to decline significantly, with gasoline and diesel consumption hitting new highs, further fueling market concerns about tight oil supplies. Although OPEC+ announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, the actual output increase has been much lower than market expectations. With limited supply growth and accelerating inventory drawdowns, oil prices have been further pushed up. However, if OPEC+ significantly increases production in the future and alleviates the tight supply situation, oil prices may correct.
Considering various factors, the future trend of crude oil prices remains difficult to predict. If geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East further deteriorate and Iran takes extreme measures such as blockading the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are likely to continue rising sharply. Conversely, if the conflict eases and OPEC+'s production increase is effective, leading to an adequate crude oil supply, oil prices may decline.
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
USOIL BUY72~73
SL:70
TP1:74~75
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.