Hello,
WTI has had a strong run up since April 28th and rode in an Ascending Channel. WTI broke lower out of the Ascending Channel and I was expecting a breakout level of $23.77, but that did not occur as price action tried to retest the high.
I've outlined a few things in my chart. Even though I am short and this chart is mainly providing insight to short opportunities, I will go over a couple bullish obstacles in the near term. There is every chance bulls will want to break $28 and fill a gap around $28.76. If they are able to achieve that price gap fill and have the candle finish above $28 then I believe we will need to wait until the bullish momentum weakens before putting on a short position. However, if the bulls try for $28 and the gap fill, they risk a Triple Top, which I believe will see significant bear pressure.
While there are talks of re-opening across the globe, there is still a lot of work to be done before things return to normal. Storage is still a concern and despite Gasoline demand picking up, that doesn't mean Crude demand has picked up the same level. Therefore, I carry a bearish bias and I'm looking at shorting WTI July futures.
Looking at the chart, we are currently trading within a Horizontal Channel and roughly in the middle of the channel at the moment. With June contracts coming to expiry next week I believe there will be downward pressure on July contracts so there isn't such a wide spread upon rolling over so I'm looking for a downside breakout out of the Horizontal Channel. Initial breakout target can be $21.18, which is the 32.8% Fib level, but expect some support as price moves down towards the 50 day MA.
For those who have appetite for larger targets, I have outlined a price gap at $19.70, which can be viewable on multiple time-frames. If that isn't enough of a Short target for you, then I have also outlined another potential target at $15.45, which is another price gap but found on the 3 min time-frame (less reliable).
Overall, I think it is unrealistic that because certain countries are discussing re-opening or have initiated pockets of re-opening that suddenly Crude demand is back and storage is no longer an issue. I don't think we will see negative prices like we saw for May contracts, but there is absolutely zero chance WTI simply goes up in a straight line and I think it is time for some decent retracement.
Let me know your thoughts and comments. Cheers and good luck.
WTI has had a strong run up since April 28th and rode in an Ascending Channel. WTI broke lower out of the Ascending Channel and I was expecting a breakout level of $23.77, but that did not occur as price action tried to retest the high.
I've outlined a few things in my chart. Even though I am short and this chart is mainly providing insight to short opportunities, I will go over a couple bullish obstacles in the near term. There is every chance bulls will want to break $28 and fill a gap around $28.76. If they are able to achieve that price gap fill and have the candle finish above $28 then I believe we will need to wait until the bullish momentum weakens before putting on a short position. However, if the bulls try for $28 and the gap fill, they risk a Triple Top, which I believe will see significant bear pressure.
While there are talks of re-opening across the globe, there is still a lot of work to be done before things return to normal. Storage is still a concern and despite Gasoline demand picking up, that doesn't mean Crude demand has picked up the same level. Therefore, I carry a bearish bias and I'm looking at shorting WTI July futures.
Looking at the chart, we are currently trading within a Horizontal Channel and roughly in the middle of the channel at the moment. With June contracts coming to expiry next week I believe there will be downward pressure on July contracts so there isn't such a wide spread upon rolling over so I'm looking for a downside breakout out of the Horizontal Channel. Initial breakout target can be $21.18, which is the 32.8% Fib level, but expect some support as price moves down towards the 50 day MA.
For those who have appetite for larger targets, I have outlined a price gap at $19.70, which can be viewable on multiple time-frames. If that isn't enough of a Short target for you, then I have also outlined another potential target at $15.45, which is another price gap but found on the 3 min time-frame (less reliable).
Overall, I think it is unrealistic that because certain countries are discussing re-opening or have initiated pockets of re-opening that suddenly Crude demand is back and storage is no longer an issue. I don't think we will see negative prices like we saw for May contracts, but there is absolutely zero chance WTI simply goes up in a straight line and I think it is time for some decent retracement.
Let me know your thoughts and comments. Cheers and good luck.
Note
Shorts Entered 27.83SL 28.30
TP1 - 25.50
TP2 - 24.19
TP3 - 23
Note
SL was moved up 28.50
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.