The Nasdaq-100 has reached a critical technical juncture presenting a high-probability short opportunity for the coming week. Multiple technical factors have aligned to suggest a significant downside move is developing.
Key Technical Observations
Price Structure Analysis
Moving Average Configuration
Momentum Indicators
Trade Setup
Entry near 21,110 provides an excellent risk-reward opportunity with a stop above the recent swing high at 21,383. The primary target at 20,500 represents a significant support level and offers substantial profit potential.
Macro Context
Recent macroeconomic uncertainty combined with technical exhaustion after the recent rally creates an environment supportive of this correction. Key catalysts in the coming days could accelerate this move.
Expected Price Behavior
Look for initial support tests around 21,000 psychological level, followed by potential acceleration toward the blue box support zone. Expect periods of consolidation during this move, particularly at previous support levels around 20,950 and 20,750.
This setup provides an excellent swing trading opportunity with favorable risk-reward dynamics and strong technical confirmation.
Key Technical Observations
Price Structure Analysis
- Formation of a failed retest of broken uptrend support, now functioning as resistance
- Rejection from the Point of Control (POC) area around 21,122
- Price failed to recapture the key Value Area Low (VAL) at 21,086
- Clear lower highs and lower lows developing on the H4 timeframe
Moving Average Configuration
- All major EMAs (8, 13, 21, 55, 200) are in bearish alignment
- Price trading well below the 55 EMA, confirming the bearish bias
- Recent price action showing rejection at the 21 EMA intersection
Momentum Indicators
- MACD showing continued negative momentum and bearish divergence
- Volume profile indicates diminishing buying pressure during recent consolidation
- Momentum oscillators in oversold territory but showing no reversal signals
Trade Setup
Entry near 21,110 provides an excellent risk-reward opportunity with a stop above the recent swing high at 21,383. The primary target at 20,500 represents a significant support level and offers substantial profit potential.
Macro Context
Recent macroeconomic uncertainty combined with technical exhaustion after the recent rally creates an environment supportive of this correction. Key catalysts in the coming days could accelerate this move.
Expected Price Behavior
Look for initial support tests around 21,000 psychological level, followed by potential acceleration toward the blue box support zone. Expect periods of consolidation during this move, particularly at previous support levels around 20,950 and 20,750.
This setup provides an excellent swing trading opportunity with favorable risk-reward dynamics and strong technical confirmation.
Trade active
Still in short trade, parameters have changed slighly with Stops increased to compensate for this overall move.As long as we maintain below the 200ema the my bias remains bearish for the following reasons.
Technical Considerations
- All meajor EMA's in bearish alignment.
- H1, H4 & Daily charts in bearish alignment.
- Daily chart shows a clear trend change with failed attempts to recapture key levels.
Momentum Considerations
- Bearish momentum indicators support bearish thesis.
- No bullish divergence present to contradict the downside bias.
- Volume patterns suggest distribution rather than accumulation.
Market Context
- Price action is showing typical consolidation before continuation.
- The 21,200 - 21,300 range appears to be establishing as resistance.
- Broader context from the daily chart supports the bearish case.
Not ideal to have pushlished the chart with such a tight stop for an intra day/week swing but this is the latest until price continues to our target or we are corrected and the market returns to a bullish bias.
Note
Officially entered the safe zone. Looking to see how this one pans out, as for the range on the Nasdaq, we have just dropped below the premium end of the spectrum so expect another move down to our tp levels before seeing a committed reversal on the higher timeframe.
Trade closed: target reached
Move complete.On to the next one.
I hope you’ve had a great day and that your screens were green. 🌟
Happy Trading, and see you next time! 💹✨
Happy Trading, and see you next time! 💹✨
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I hope you’ve had a great day and that your screens were green. 🌟
Happy Trading, and see you next time! 💹✨
Happy Trading, and see you next time! 💹✨
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.