ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF

Long

$UVXY above $30, brings $60+

has two big hurdles it needs to make it over before it can see higher prices.

1. It needs to get over the 200DMA (light blue line)
2. It needs to get over $30

As you can see, price has been consolidating in a channel since the August spike and IMO is almost ready for a big move.

I think this move will likely take place the second half of February and potentially into March.

I'll be looking at buying call options for 3/7 expiration, or 3/21 is even safer.

I think the move is likely to hit the $71 level on the chart, and could potentially go as high as the top resistance (however I don't see that as very likely). To me, most probable target is $78-82 right below the trend line.

Let's see how it plays out.

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Think it's likely that we test 28-$30 tomorrow pre-fomc, then post FOMC we drop again.

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Also possible that we just keep falling tomorrow. I have both longs and shorts for any outcome.

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I think it's less likely now that we see a huge spike. Possible, but not my base case. I think equities will largely be bullish until next week. Then I'll start adding back more UVXY exposure.

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It's possible that the move on Friday started the move higher and that the move plays out prior to 2/18 instead of after. Let's see.

Still have 130 $30C for 2/21 incase that does happen.

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I don't think it's time for a larger move yet, so if price goes up to $27-29 region tomorrow, I'll likely take profits there on my 2/21 calls, then I want to reposition for March so I have more time on my side.

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I'm looking for $31.30 or so to sell my options, or SPY at $580, if we don't get it, not selling. Just going to watch price action -- not sure if we get up there today, it would be a large move.

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Doesn't look like we're going to get it. Think we're going to see a massive short squeeze and vol crush instead. Just going to keep holding -- not time yet.

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For those frustrated that we haven't moved yet... x.com/benjihyam/status/1886599297866870950

It's coming.

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Vol crush continuing. I think it can take us down below $17 and the market sees a short squeeze. I'm going to use the low prices over the next days to scale into more vol for 3/21.

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Added some 30C for 2/28 and 35C for 3/7.

If the market continues higher next week, will continue to add for 3/21

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We should have a better sense of timing early next week when I get to see how the weekly candle looks and we see if we continue higher or have one more low. So far, the chart looks extremely bullish. Today was a pivot, so it's possible that today was the bottom and that we just move higher from here.

If that's the case, the next pivot is the 24th. I'd expect that to be the top, or the top hits before that on the18th or 19th, or continues higher until expiration (like what happened during covid when the market bottom on March expiration) and that pivot sends price back down.

Still looking for $74-78 target. Again, I'm adding longer term expirations just incase I'm wrong on the timing.

Again, we should know more next week on whether today was the start of the move or not.

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Weekly Heikin Ashi is red to start the week. Would need to make it over 20 to change that. Therefore not convinced on a bullish move until over that level.

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If we get a bullish reaction in the markets post CPI tomorrow, I think it's likely to mark the bottom of UVXY. I'm looking for $17.50 or so.

Will update tomorrow based on what I see, but I think if that happens, the move starts afterwards.

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Welp hot CPI print and so far it's looking like a bearish reaction. That could've changed things. Above 20 in UVXY this week will change the structure of the chart and make it more likely that we start a larger move.

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I added more 30C calls for 3/7 and 3/21 and some $23C for 2/21

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Pretty convinced today was the bottom.

Now we need to see over $20.50 to flip the weekly candle from bearish to bullish.

Then over $30, if we can close over $30, then we'll likely see continuation towards the targets in the $70+ range.

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Just bought a ton more for 3/7 on this dip. I'm probably done buying. Loaded up with calls now from 2/21-3/21.

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Welp obviously yesterday wasn't the bottom. Next pivot is Wednesday. I bought some calls in NVDA to hedge against the calls in UVXY incase the market keeps going up here.

Added more UVXY today too.

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$17.52 is next support, then $17.07

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As of now, I don't see a spike coming this week. I think the market likely continues up this week and we start falling next week into 3/7. So vol should move during that time period. I've been adding for 3/7 and 3/21

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Alright yesterday we tapped the support I was looking for. Today we turned up. Low timeframes are starting to look more bullish on Ichimoku, let's see what happens over the next few days here. Need to break above 20, then 30 and a close above 30 likely means more upside.

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At 11AM PT, 2PM ET we have the fed minutes getting released, that could bring in some volatility.

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Welp broke support. Next level down is around $17.

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Welp now we got a flip up. As long as price can continue holding $17.52, we can see a change in direction. Today was a key pivot day, so will want to see how price action shapes up the rest of the day

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We're getting close to a major breakout. Again, as long as we hold 17.52, price should move higher by next Wednesday 2/26.

We're about to break a massive triangle structure that goes back to the December breakout. I've been watching the USDJPY as I think that's likely the trigger.

The beginning of the carry trade unwind part 2?

In the short term, I could see a bounce back above 150, but if we see another waterfall that takes us below 148 or so, it'll likely take down the market.

I continue to accumulate here for 3/7, 3/14 and 3/21. Getting frustrating that we're not seeing any major movement when I can feel that we're very close to a move but will remain patient.

My guess is that when we do break, the move will be very large as we've been consolidating for a long time and price has been held down for so long.

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Price flip up this morning off support and first green daily heikin ashi candle. We're seeing USDJPY sell off more this morning and it looks like it has a lot of room to move down. I don't think we see a large move until over the weekend/Monday though.

Below $148.80 on USDJPY or so, the market should start to take notice. Below 604 in SPY and I think we see more selling volume come in.

No one sees any risks at the moment being that every selloff has been bought up. This one looks different in structure and seeing selling across a lot of assets now.

Let's see how the rest of the day shapes up.

Would love to see a close over $18. Next big resistance is $20.

Need a close over both of those areas to start a larger move.

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There goes 604. Vol starting to react.

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Alright seeing everything I want to see. The top for UVXY and bottom for the market should come on March 3-4

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Everything is looking good to me for the thesis posted before to play out. Price is consolidating right below $20. Remember, that's a key level. If we close over it, likely moving higher.

I'm looking to take profits at $46, however as of now, I'm leaning towards the full move taking us to $102-106. Which I still think will play out between now and Tuesday next week (this could change depending on what happens tomorrow and Friday.

I have options for 2/28, 3/7 (majority of them, $35,$40C), 3/14, 3/21.

If we hit $46 this week, I'll likely take profits from the 2/28 and leave the rest open. This is really risky but I'm going for maximum gains. And I'll already be very up on the 2/28 options if price hits $46.

That's my plan as of now. However, my plan often changes in the moment based on what I'm seeing. Remember $20, $30 are the key levels to break over, if we can't close above those levels, then we won't see continuation.

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Interesting... note the date: x.com/financialjuice/status/1895108497634718050

Let's see if we can get a close over 20 today.

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Solid day. Up a ton. Higher.

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Still closed above $20. We shall see what happens next week.

Less confidence now, but it's 50/50 in terms of probabilities. Still think we go higher, just not as sure on timing. Would've liked a stronger move today. The earliest date we could top is Tuesday.

Again, the USDJPY will be the tell. Below $178.73 and this move becomes more likely to play out.

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Not looking like we're going to bottom in the market today. Other possibilities are Thursday and next Tuesday. Debating how I'm going to manage positions.

Again $573 is a key level for SPY to break through (that should lead to very sustained selling) and I think the bottom is likely $545 or so.

Also $148.73 JPY key level to stay under. You can see how every time we bounce, the market also bounces.

The hardest part of this trade will be managing the position (as many of my options expire on Friday) unless we see a very big vol spike similar to the overnight trade that happened on August 5th where we opened up 130% higher.

As of now, I'm still holding everything.

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That was an extremely ugly close for SPY. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Might just been off on timing by a day or two.

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Adam and eve bottom on UVXY. Once through $23.71, will see a strong move up.

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Annoying price action but still looks bullish despite that drop. I think we're just consolidating and needing the RSIs to move down before a large move can take place

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Everything aligning today. above 200DMA and backtested it already. USDJPY broke below $148.73.

Last thing we'll need to see a big move is SPY below $573.

Based on all of this, highest probability scenario is we top in the first 30 minutes of trading tomorrow or sometime during tomorrow's pivot on the chart.

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Had a good close over $25.60 which is likely to get us continuation tomorrow. Maybe we see capitulation tomorrow?

This has been the most frustrating price action. The charts look so bearish but we get stuck at important levels...

Maybe it's just because we see a 1 day flush? Honestly, not sure, but I liked the close.

We can bottom in stocks and crypto tomorrow or it can take until Wednesday next week. Let's see what happens at open.

I think we likely need to sell options before 9AM PST tomorrow based on my pivots.

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All relies on next week now. It's either we see a big move or I don't think it's going to happen.

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Thursday should be the day.

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Next big level that I would love to close over is 31. If we close over that, ever big resistance is out of the way.

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Click play... interesting that price held the top of the channel. Next move higher incoming.

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Even if we do get a large move today, what I don't like about the chart now is we have a red flat topped Heikin Ashi on the daily, so I don't think we could see a top today.

Best case scenario, we see a large move today that changes the candle structure.

Will update if I see anything change.

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We need to flip $27 today, if that can happen it'll change the candle structure, but I've never seen UVXY top without a flat green bottomed Heikin Ashi candle. So if we can see a large move today, then we likely get that tomorrow.

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We just broke through $5565 in ES1!, which is where the JPM collar trade is. That's why you're seeing volatility start to spike here because that collar trade usually holds price above it.

If we see continued selling far below that level, vol should start to spike a lot more.

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Candle structure changed. No longer a flat topped red candle. Need to see price continue to move higher throughout the day though

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Again, looking for a close over $30-31 today and we should be in the clear for a large move higher.

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Welp not looking like we're going to get that close. Maybe we only see the final move on Tuesday after 3/18 VIX contracts expire which I believe settle around 9AM.

I have a ton of calls for next week too. If it doesn't hit by then, then it's a failed trade.

Crazy, we're so close but we are not seeing a final capitulation.

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Closing update: We continue to hold the breakout trendline, but haven't broken the $28 level, which is a key resistance. The next time it gets tested it should break and so should $30 the next time it gets hit.

We will have to see what happens tomorrow or early next week.

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Looking at Wednesday now. Tuesday is when VIX contracts expire. So all the hedges come off of the market and the fed meeting can create volatility. Think this level here is likely the low. $24.78 or so.

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Didn't get the move today as you can see. However, USDJPY did sell off pretty massively during Powell's speech which is what I've been watching as that is the cause of the selloff. Now it's back down through all of the key supports. So let's see if that causes the selloff to begin again.

Honestly been perplexed that we haven't seen more movement in volatility with all of the downside in stocks, but I've looked through all of the charts over and over again and I still don't think the market is bullish here. My 10hr and 12hr parabolic move signal triggered on the VIX and we're right at the level price should correct to for it to bounce and to see followthrough on a parabolic move (if it's not a false signal). I am still of the belief that this move down in stocks ends in a crash before the end of March. Then we're bullish the remainder of the year. We shall see if this ends up being correct.

I haven't closed out my calls yet for this week or next week, just going to ride it to expiration.

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Pivot is tomorrow. We're testing the 200DMA on SPY right now, if we can't close above it, then likely continuation down tomorrow and so reversal in UVXY tomorrow.

6 days ago

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So far, pivot worked. Reversal yesterday, continuation today. Would now like to see a move over $23-24 by end of week. That would flip the weekly candle bullish and give more probability for continuation into next week.

I did take some profit today, if we get a dip tomorrow, I'll load up again on 4/17 options. I think from here on out all dips are for buying unless we break below yesterday's low at $19.33.

4 days ago

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Alright so far so good. $23.50 tagged, changed the weekly candle to where I think we can see continuation next week.

A close over $23.50 would be great as that's the 200DMA but overall trade is looking good.

Let's see if we get to the target(s) in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Still looking for between $80-106.

yesterday

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Seeing continuation as anticipated, next hurdle is $30. Close over $30-31 area and we likely see a large move higher.

benjihyam

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benjihyam

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