VALE is just hanging together

Vale S .A. (VALE), one of the largest producers of iron ore, recently posted controversial financial results. On the one hand, the company was more than successful in executing its strategy, largely led by record iron ore prices (a 22% increase YoY in Q4 2023). Both revenue and EBITDA exceeded consensus estimates, however, EPS was a large miss.

Vale’s adjusted net earnings have been thwarted by the increase in provision for environmental settlements. Brazilian company reported a 35% drop in fourth-quarter net income, missing analysts' expectations due to a 40% increase in provision for environmental settlements totaling $4.21 bn from $3 bn announced previously. This will have a devastating effect on the company’s FCF in the coming quarters.

VALE stock is notches towards the lower end of the support channel, bringing hopes of a rise in stock prices. The stock price, however, is subject to fluctuations in iron ore pricing, which has recently hit 3-year high, while the stock price has been in a downtrend since 2021. A further slump in iron ore prices could thus trigger VALE selloff.
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