VEN: long and shortterm analysis
Updated
Vechain is focussing on RFID and the blockchain, just als Waltonchain is. In my opinion this combination is golden and I am extremely bullish on any technically sound project in this category. The RFID market is extremely big and will only continue to grow, so there is ample room for botch Vechain and Waltonchain to succeed. In fact, I think it would be extremely usefull for both coins if both reddit communities for example would collaborate in promoting the use of blockchain and RFID instead of downtalking each other.
Compared to WTC, VEN is the louder younger brother. Their team is extremely good in hyping and building up tension. The best part is, is that their hype is actually backed by major partnerships and good fundamentals.
This combination of marketing and good tech, has been the cause that VEN has seen an extreme rise the last 2 months or so. But with the upcoming rebranding and their mainnet launch in Q2, we could still go up.
VEN has completed 4 waves and is now in the middle of wave 5 (left chart). The waves that follow the uptrend (1-3-5) are also composed of smaller waves as we can see more clearly on the right.
In this smaller time-frame we can see that Wave 1 has finished and a correction to the blue box is due, which forms wave 2. This correction is also heralded by the RSI on the left chart, which is pointing down and should cool off somewhat before we can continue with the uptrend.
Since we are in uncharted terittory it is difficult to find resistance lines to define tops. But using fibonacci and trend line analysis I think for Wave 5 to end between 0.0015-0.0016 btc is not out of the question.
Compared to WTC, VEN is the louder younger brother. Their team is extremely good in hyping and building up tension. The best part is, is that their hype is actually backed by major partnerships and good fundamentals.
This combination of marketing and good tech, has been the cause that VEN has seen an extreme rise the last 2 months or so. But with the upcoming rebranding and their mainnet launch in Q2, we could still go up.
VEN has completed 4 waves and is now in the middle of wave 5 (left chart). The waves that follow the uptrend (1-3-5) are also composed of smaller waves as we can see more clearly on the right.
In this smaller time-frame we can see that Wave 1 has finished and a correction to the blue box is due, which forms wave 2. This correction is also heralded by the RSI on the left chart, which is pointing down and should cool off somewhat before we can continue with the uptrend.
Since we are in uncharted terittory it is difficult to find resistance lines to define tops. But using fibonacci and trend line analysis I think for Wave 5 to end between 0.0015-0.0016 btc is not out of the question.
Note
Yesterday was an interesting day for VEN. According to TA VEN was supposed to retrace some more, but there was a major livestream event planned and many VEN holders were actually anticipating on a big move upwards during or after the event. Nonetheless, we are retracing more today because there were no major new announcements made during the event and people are taking their profits. That is why I like to rely on TA, it doesn't take into account al the emotions arround announcements, news and big events. It is just numbers without the FOMO and panic sells. Is it always correct? Certainly not. But does it help me making rational, well thought out decisions? Jup. With that being said, we are still in leg 2 of wave 5. Now that the pattern is a bit clearer, I updated the bounce area. I'm thinking that 0.00059-0.00060 will be the bottom for now.
Note
As wave 1-3-5 are usually made up of another 5-wave pattern. Legs that go against the trend (2 and 4) are often characterized by an ABC pattern.Note
VEN did overshoot my target box somewhat, nonetheless we are now moving up again as predicted. Lets see if we will reach 3. 
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