VeChain Twist: Next Crypto Crash or Rally?
Updated
VeChain is moving in the direction we anticipated, heading downwards. Of course, we'd be pleased with a continued parabolic rise since we have two open entries that have performed exceptionally well, with our stop-loss significantly moved up. 
Thus, we've already taken profits, securing a good position, but we aim to build a larger position in the overarching Wave (2), where we expect it to reach between 50% and 61.8%. This is significantly distant from the current price.
We also anticipate that VeChain might react more sharply to a potential sell-off in the cryptocurrency market than other assets, given its recent parabolic rise and increased volatility. As clarified in our last analysis, we've reached the Wave ((b)) at the 138% level, between 127.2% and 138%, and haven't seen this level since, leading us to expect further price declines. We estimate that for Wave ((c)), we might not immediately see a conclusion but rather a drop to the level of Wave 3, followed by an overarching Wave B and then a Wave C formation. The exact unfolding of this overarching corrective Wave (2) remains to be seen. However, we will not alter our stop-loss and will wait to see if VeChain falls as much as we believe it might.
Thus, we've already taken profits, securing a good position, but we aim to build a larger position in the overarching Wave (2), where we expect it to reach between 50% and 61.8%. This is significantly distant from the current price.
We also anticipate that VeChain might react more sharply to a potential sell-off in the cryptocurrency market than other assets, given its recent parabolic rise and increased volatility. As clarified in our last analysis, we've reached the Wave ((b)) at the 138% level, between 127.2% and 138%, and haven't seen this level since, leading us to expect further price declines. We estimate that for Wave ((c)), we might not immediately see a conclusion but rather a drop to the level of Wave 3, followed by an overarching Wave B and then a Wave C formation. The exact unfolding of this overarching corrective Wave (2) remains to be seen. However, we will not alter our stop-loss and will wait to see if VeChain falls as much as we believe it might.
Note
For VeChain, we remain convinced that we have not yet completed the correction of the overarching Wave (2) and should develop a Wave B in the coming weeks. It's possible that we might have already formed Wave B at a top of 100%, but this seems unlikely. We anticipate a minor pullback followed by another rise, likely up to the maximum 138% level, similar to what we observed with the subordinate Wave (b). Such a spike would be expected, but if we instead move downward sooner, that would also be valid. We just should not exceed the 138% level; otherwise, it might indicate that the correction has already concluded, and Wave (2) is complete, meaning we are progressing into Wave (3), or we might be facing a different scenario altogether.
For Wave C, we expect a 5-wave downward correction. If we already observe a 5-wave structure on the short-term chart, we'll let you know.
Note
For VeChain, the situation looks different compared to other cryptocurrencies, as we've observed stronger downtrends here. This indicates the weakness we wanted to see, reinforcing our belief in the continuation towards completing Wave (2), which our limit order targets around the 50 to 61.8% range. Looking closer at the 1-hour chart, this level becomes crucial for us to ensure we remain in a downtrend. For this subordinate Wave ((iv)), we expect it to be within the 50 to 61.8% range. The invalidation zone lies at Wave ((i)); we should not significantly surpass or linger above this level, as it would invalidate our bearish scenario. Until such a breach occurs, we maintain our position, believing in a continued downturn until our entry for Wave (2) is triggered.
Note
For VeChain, we've now reached the level of Wave 1, highlighted by the red-marked ellipse. Despite the significant downward movement and our usual flexibility regarding Wave ((iv)) intruding into the territory of Wave ((i)), we must acknowledge that this configuration of Wave ((iv)) may not be correct. However, we will maintain our limit order as long as we do not penetrate further into the level of Wave ((iv)). Considering an alternate count that doesn't anticipate a forthcoming Wave (2) does not seem logical to us. Therefore, we will stick to our current strategy, but with an understanding that this wave count might not be entirely accurate in book theory.
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