VIAC LONG, bull-case vs. bear-case for next two week retrace
- OBV bottoming, ricocheting off lower levels. Bear-case, breaks momentum support and continues lower. Watching out for 44, MAX PAIN. IF OBV holds the line this week, STRONG BUY.
- MACD-M approaching daily negative value quickly. This is going to be the reversal when touches 0.0, IMO. Highlighted in yellow circle, key area to watch. Bear-case, if follows thru with negative switch BUY to neutral. IF MACD-M never touches daily negative value, STRONG BUY.
- Most telling indicator is where the drop-stopped after Hwang’s Archegos(1) bomb went off. As displayed on the daily chart, bouncing off the support from March 2020's low to before the Hwang 'artificial' rip upwards(2) that critics are speculating on the validity. My point is Viacom is not GME, yes it was exponentially pumpd but it's a MAJOR MEDIA CONGLOMERATE(3). The positive potential is beginning to outweigh the downside.
Ideas:
-MM wants to dig the knife in deeper, allowing the price to run upwards, and violently, would add more pain to Hwang being forced to liquidate in the 40s.
-Stock buyback seems like a valid option for the company. As they begin their streaming (Paramount+) (debuted MAR4) making a big bet on themselves would show the market they are ready to compete.
-AAPL and other big dogs not currently in the streaming scene have to be considering VIAC at these price levels. Viacom has been around for a while, and with Sumner Redstone's passing last August(4) his children, Brent and Shari, are running the business. They're not the tycoons their father was..
-Just because some greedy monster like Hwang exercised some bad judgement, overleveraged himself and pumpd the stock, doesnt take away from the value and company's performance.
1 - finance.yahoo.com/news/leveraged-blowout-hwang-archegos-blindsided-194632717.html
2 - latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2021-04-02/viacom-cbs-stock-collapse-streaming-paramount-plus
3 - marajay21.wordpress.com/2015/01/29/major-media-conglomerate-viacom-and-time-warner/
4 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumner_Redstone
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