S&P500 SPY Daily - Three Bearish Observations (and a fourth)
One: On a weekly basis, the price range has expanded to the downside which means that the buyers have stepped back and the sellers have taken control. This week's move down is greater than last week's price range. When that range expansion happens, it is a sell signal and you can sell any rallies with a stop at the start of the week.
Two: The market has yet to retest the 75% retracement level from the VIX spike back in October. There has been an extremely high probability that the market would retest that level, which is marked on the chart at 194.31 +/-.
Three: The move up in VIX is bearish because it means liquidity is low and falling. Why? As investors and hedgers go into the market to buy options, there increasingly are fewer sellers to offer options and therefore sellers are only available at higher prices. When buyers step up and pay those higher prices, it drives up the reading of VIX. Granted, many people view VIX is many different ways, what you want to look for is for VIX to stabilize and then you know the market is getting close to a bottom. For now it is trying to find the bottom.
Throw in the bearish action of HYG (Junk Bond Interest Rates are rising steadily) and you have the makings of much lower equity prices in the medium term.
Tim 203.30 when I started typing... 202.55 last....
Two: The market has yet to retest the 75% retracement level from the VIX spike back in October. There has been an extremely high probability that the market would retest that level, which is marked on the chart at 194.31 +/-.
Three: The move up in VIX is bearish because it means liquidity is low and falling. Why? As investors and hedgers go into the market to buy options, there increasingly are fewer sellers to offer options and therefore sellers are only available at higher prices. When buyers step up and pay those higher prices, it drives up the reading of VIX. Granted, many people view VIX is many different ways, what you want to look for is for VIX to stabilize and then you know the market is getting close to a bottom. For now it is trying to find the bottom.
Throw in the bearish action of HYG (Junk Bond Interest Rates are rising steadily) and you have the makings of much lower equity prices in the medium term.
Tim 203.30 when I started typing... 202.55 last....
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