VIX - 9x8 = 72
The recent market conditions have been strange. Post-Coronavirus Disease 2019 panic, everything went up in nearly a straight line for more than a year before SPX plinked 4,800, and then started retreating, within mere days of the commencement of 2022's calendar year.
During the moon run, VIX spent ten months in an area that I regarded as a key accumulation zone based on pre-pseudopandemic trading.
Despite SPX retreating 1,300 points over the course of only a few months, there was no fear. There was primarily no fear because it chopped up and down and back and forth. Even though SPX could lose 100 points in a day, it would gain it all back the next.
There was a lot of volatility, but omni-directionally, and a lot of chatter about recession, but nobody was really afraid.
During this period of time, notably, VIX never returned to the 18 level accumulation box.
So what is VIX? Everyone knows VIX is the volatility index, but its calculated based on the strike price of a range of SP500 options traded on CBOE.
Notably, all the way down throughout the year, even with January's dumps and February's when Russia invaded Ukraine, VIX never had a major spike as seen during other market corrections.
Actually, it never exceeded 39, despite taking five stabs at it before the June bottoms.
Friday's price action shows that the market is set for a real correction after a two month bear rally. I had some doubts about this on Wednesday and Thursday, but after seeing VIX retake 25 on a Friday, notable because Fridays have been "VIX Crush Fridays" lately, as everything melted down in good and proper fashion, I am confident the conditions have been cleared for a real bell ringer.
I believe that what we're about to see is some fairly epic and violent dumps below the June lows.
I foresee that a key characteristic of this coming movement is that it will happen both aggressively, and fast, which will naturally print an all new manic VIX candle.
What I have had in mind for several months is that when this happens we would just see a meager VIX 50, something like a yawn-worthy and short lived fake out dump. However, when I went to examine the chart in detail, I found that VIX 50 is the spike that was printed in the two most recent pre-COVID crashes.
Of course, 2008's scheme was 90, and some are projecting that "because recession" and "because inflation" we'll see something crazy like VIX 200, but frankly, I think this is a misunderstanding of where we're at in the bubble pop schematic.
Despite the markets' incredible retracements this year, there was no fear. We haven't had fear yet.
We're about to have fear, and it's going to come strong and fast and the propaganda machine is going to bark, and bark, and bark, all so you can panic, sell low, and get short, waiting for SPX 2,400.
This will also let the options MMs sell a lot of puts at the bottom with huge implied vol premiums that will expire worthless, and then they'll buy themselves another 1,200 square miles of farm land.
What I foresee actually happening is that when the target below June lows and above or slightly under the pre-COVID highs is achieved... we're looking at something like a 1,000 point dump counting from mid-August's 4,300 print.
Afterwards, we'll get either the "return to normal" or a Bump and Run Reversal bubble pop pattern, one that will also come fast and strong, so that everyone can buy back higher and have the happy heading into the U.S. October Midterm Elections.
Thus, I believe what we'll see VIX print is 72. It won't be as bad as COVID, and it will come up short of bear expectations and isn't going to break 2008.
But it's also going to be a lot more scary than the '15 and '18 corrections.
You might think to yourself that VIX 25 is too far away for this to happen so quickly, but the '15 and '18 runs to 50 all happened inside of just three daily candles.
If you were getting long during this two month bear squeeze and didn't dump mid August highss, you really need to ask yourself why you have such blind faith in this Ponzi.
Why do you think that you're still in the old situation where you can mash buy on SPY or QQQ or TSLA and AAPL and watch it go up in a straight line and make new highs every day without having to think or worry one bit?
That's not where we are in the diagram, and it's not the situation the world is facing. The world is in a lot of trouble. Humanity's future is in a lot of trouble.
And because of this, you're going to be entertained and placated with both a crashing market and then a mooning market, so that you can pay attention to the establishment narrative espoused on Bloomberg, Zerohedge, Reddit, Fintwit, and from 20-year-old charlatans on YouTube who make their money from ad revenue and not from trading.
And the purpose of all this is to distract you from the real meaning of your life, which is to prepare to cultivate yourselves and to prepare to return to tradition as the Chinese Communist Party is eliminated in the imminent future.
Once VIX is at 60, stop shorting and stop buying puts.
During the moon run, VIX spent ten months in an area that I regarded as a key accumulation zone based on pre-pseudopandemic trading.
Despite SPX retreating 1,300 points over the course of only a few months, there was no fear. There was primarily no fear because it chopped up and down and back and forth. Even though SPX could lose 100 points in a day, it would gain it all back the next.
There was a lot of volatility, but omni-directionally, and a lot of chatter about recession, but nobody was really afraid.
During this period of time, notably, VIX never returned to the 18 level accumulation box.
So what is VIX? Everyone knows VIX is the volatility index, but its calculated based on the strike price of a range of SP500 options traded on CBOE.
Notably, all the way down throughout the year, even with January's dumps and February's when Russia invaded Ukraine, VIX never had a major spike as seen during other market corrections.
Actually, it never exceeded 39, despite taking five stabs at it before the June bottoms.
Friday's price action shows that the market is set for a real correction after a two month bear rally. I had some doubts about this on Wednesday and Thursday, but after seeing VIX retake 25 on a Friday, notable because Fridays have been "VIX Crush Fridays" lately, as everything melted down in good and proper fashion, I am confident the conditions have been cleared for a real bell ringer.
I believe that what we're about to see is some fairly epic and violent dumps below the June lows.
I foresee that a key characteristic of this coming movement is that it will happen both aggressively, and fast, which will naturally print an all new manic VIX candle.
What I have had in mind for several months is that when this happens we would just see a meager VIX 50, something like a yawn-worthy and short lived fake out dump. However, when I went to examine the chart in detail, I found that VIX 50 is the spike that was printed in the two most recent pre-COVID crashes.
Of course, 2008's scheme was 90, and some are projecting that "because recession" and "because inflation" we'll see something crazy like VIX 200, but frankly, I think this is a misunderstanding of where we're at in the bubble pop schematic.
Despite the markets' incredible retracements this year, there was no fear. We haven't had fear yet.
We're about to have fear, and it's going to come strong and fast and the propaganda machine is going to bark, and bark, and bark, all so you can panic, sell low, and get short, waiting for SPX 2,400.
This will also let the options MMs sell a lot of puts at the bottom with huge implied vol premiums that will expire worthless, and then they'll buy themselves another 1,200 square miles of farm land.
What I foresee actually happening is that when the target below June lows and above or slightly under the pre-COVID highs is achieved... we're looking at something like a 1,000 point dump counting from mid-August's 4,300 print.
Afterwards, we'll get either the "return to normal" or a Bump and Run Reversal bubble pop pattern, one that will also come fast and strong, so that everyone can buy back higher and have the happy heading into the U.S. October Midterm Elections.
Thus, I believe what we'll see VIX print is 72. It won't be as bad as COVID, and it will come up short of bear expectations and isn't going to break 2008.
But it's also going to be a lot more scary than the '15 and '18 corrections.
You might think to yourself that VIX 25 is too far away for this to happen so quickly, but the '15 and '18 runs to 50 all happened inside of just three daily candles.
If you were getting long during this two month bear squeeze and didn't dump mid August highss, you really need to ask yourself why you have such blind faith in this Ponzi.
Why do you think that you're still in the old situation where you can mash buy on SPY or QQQ or TSLA and AAPL and watch it go up in a straight line and make new highs every day without having to think or worry one bit?
That's not where we are in the diagram, and it's not the situation the world is facing. The world is in a lot of trouble. Humanity's future is in a lot of trouble.
And because of this, you're going to be entertained and placated with both a crashing market and then a mooning market, so that you can pay attention to the establishment narrative espoused on Bloomberg, Zerohedge, Reddit, Fintwit, and from 20-year-old charlatans on YouTube who make their money from ad revenue and not from trading.
And the purpose of all this is to distract you from the real meaning of your life, which is to prepare to cultivate yourselves and to prepare to return to tradition as the Chinese Communist Party is eliminated in the imminent future.
Once VIX is at 60, stop shorting and stop buying puts.
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