Let me begin by congratulating all shorts from the 85 highs, perfect timing in another flawless VIX swing traded live together...btw that is now sharing its significant anniversary moves with a historic crash in Global Equities. Mission accomplished! Sellers of Vol can now really consider themselves as an integral player caught in decent profit taking areas which also happen to be the middle of a WIDE range and to put the cherry on top, buyers of Volatility are still under further protection from the virus impact.... it's time to pay attention.
As you look at it be sure to notice how the inner strength which belonging to those who bought the initial breakout, failed immediately on the 85 target as expected. We could go on to consider many points which are worth considering, but for the sake of today's example we are going to look at the bullish cash here. Before we turn to the next strategy, we must sum things up:
Volatility Cycles you see, project a point in defensive or attacking behaviour as they expect strategic advances of capital flows. It always comes down to the same situation: any swing complex which could be called sound, must always take in the brutal component of Volatility. It is the centrepiece for measuring confidence...and the return to 'normal' life after covid-19 (whatever that means) is all down to confidence. How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc.
The great charter we have traded together so far has played a vital part in predicting decisions and the economic cycle down.
Now it is no surprise...It was an essential ingredient for the insane moves I forecast right on time in Unemployment claims.
Economists are the unsung heroes of the financial world and their role as academics will only be recognised by politicians by the time it is too late. Selecting important movers and shakers, preparing flows and insuring facts and history align and summarising the strategy precisely all require expertise, intelligence, care and effort. The moment one starts the think about it, one realises how great an impact economic strategy must have on the development of finance.
The VIX is in a position of being able to bring together its own herd of early sellers - those betting on the virus to be a one and done quick bounce, then everything is neatly protected again and the shepherd can turn to other matters with a clear mind. No...the stupid sheep will run away from the shepherd - watch-out for the flock, smells to me like the virus ending has one final manoeuvre and a sweep of 100 for a blockbuster headline would be an easily won ending.
Remember, the necessity for sellers to clear shorts from the 85 highs is both strategic and planned! We are entering into key value support. This case for a fresh high in VIX would coincide with a fresh low in Global Equities, another round of demand for USD on the G10 FX board (see related ideas below)....it opens many doors, correct handling of the strategy indicates an extremely difficult few weeks ahead and requires exact knowledge of how to play the advance. So I must leave you, dear reader to your own devices, and hope that fate is kind to you. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Note
Oil breaking to fresh lows and kickstarting the next leg in VIX...
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