Housing - Bubble Pop
Updated
Idea for Housing/REITs (VNQ):
- The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs.
- Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop.
- China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/china-orders-state-firms-to-curb-overseas-commodities-exposure
- State firms ordered to curb overseas commodities exposure.
- Fed continues MBS purchasing with QE, despite RRP skyrocketing. Why? The MBS and Housing bubble is critical, and it is ready to collapse.
- Homebuyer sentiment drops to 10 year low:
finance.yahoo.com/news/fannie-mae-home-purchase-index-homebuyers-sentiment-10-year-low-123008564.html
- Homebuilder sentiment declines to reach a 10 month low (NAHB):
news.yahoo.com/key-homebuilder-sentiment-index-hits-115510492.html
- Housing prices being speculated such that locals are priced out of the market. Institutional investors and State-backed institutions buy up neighborhoods as they seek yield in an overheated global market.
- The Credit Cycle has turned down, and the liquidity flows have been shut off. Institutions can no longer bid up their own assets.
- As commodities prices crash, it will become cheaper to build a house than to buy one off the market, leading to increasing supply and decreasing demand.
- When housing no longer provides yield, institutions will dump their assets onto the market and prices will crater.
- MBS's and Lumber leading the crash, the REITs will soon get the hint.
GLHF
- DPT
- The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs.
- Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop.
- China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/china-orders-state-firms-to-curb-overseas-commodities-exposure
- State firms ordered to curb overseas commodities exposure.
- Fed continues MBS purchasing with QE, despite RRP skyrocketing. Why? The MBS and Housing bubble is critical, and it is ready to collapse.
- Homebuyer sentiment drops to 10 year low:
finance.yahoo.com/news/fannie-mae-home-purchase-index-homebuyers-sentiment-10-year-low-123008564.html
- Homebuilder sentiment declines to reach a 10 month low (NAHB):
news.yahoo.com/key-homebuilder-sentiment-index-hits-115510492.html
- Housing prices being speculated such that locals are priced out of the market. Institutional investors and State-backed institutions buy up neighborhoods as they seek yield in an overheated global market.
- The Credit Cycle has turned down, and the liquidity flows have been shut off. Institutions can no longer bid up their own assets.
- As commodities prices crash, it will become cheaper to build a house than to buy one off the market, leading to increasing supply and decreasing demand.
- When housing no longer provides yield, institutions will dump their assets onto the market and prices will crater.
- MBS's and Lumber leading the crash, the REITs will soon get the hint.
GLHF
- DPT
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Entered position based on wave cycle:
Note
HGX next leg down Jul 12-15, EOM at latest: 
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Overseas housing will drag it down (China/HK housing):
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