VODAFONE 190 September CALL (long)
It's difficult to know, at any given time, what is happening with Vodafone (VOD). Mergers, acquisitions, sales, purchases, entering new markets, leaving old markets, profits, losses, etc. Which is why I'm going to focus mainly on the technical side of things.
Since 2013 VOD has been in a range between a low of around 190 and a high of around 255. Thus far this range has been very consistent. In fact, the 190 zone was an area of resistance going back as far as 2001 - before the price broke out above 190, and it became support. Look at the weekly / monthly time frame to see for yourself.
Therefore, I have some confidence that the area of 190 has some clout, and unless things get really bad, serves as a place where sellers stop selling and buyers start buying.
Just recently we saw the departure of Vodafone CEO Vittorio Colao on the 15th of May. This apparently crashed the price of VOD, but only back to the 190 zone. Such a departure may bring a breath of fresh air in the future, and assuming the right person is brought in may help to raise the share price higher in the future.
As far as the latest results go (15th May), they were the usual mix of negative group revenue (as it has been forever now), low single digit organic revenue, losses in India and an EBITDA cherry on top.
So I'm trading this with an option. I have bought (long) a 190 strike September CALL on VOD. My initial target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, although the 50% is what I am ideally aiming for. However, I fear the fact that I may not have enough time for volatility to work its magic. So I would be more inclined to take profit at 38.2%.
Since 2013 VOD has been in a range between a low of around 190 and a high of around 255. Thus far this range has been very consistent. In fact, the 190 zone was an area of resistance going back as far as 2001 - before the price broke out above 190, and it became support. Look at the weekly / monthly time frame to see for yourself.
Therefore, I have some confidence that the area of 190 has some clout, and unless things get really bad, serves as a place where sellers stop selling and buyers start buying.
Just recently we saw the departure of Vodafone CEO Vittorio Colao on the 15th of May. This apparently crashed the price of VOD, but only back to the 190 zone. Such a departure may bring a breath of fresh air in the future, and assuming the right person is brought in may help to raise the share price higher in the future.
As far as the latest results go (15th May), they were the usual mix of negative group revenue (as it has been forever now), low single digit organic revenue, losses in India and an EBITDA cherry on top.
So I'm trading this with an option. I have bought (long) a 190 strike September CALL on VOD. My initial target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, although the 50% is what I am ideally aiming for. However, I fear the fact that I may not have enough time for volatility to work its magic. So I would be more inclined to take profit at 38.2%.
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