VOO : Not out of the woods yet
I believe the VOO for the S&P500 is still in the bear market range. Likely that the index will trade sideways within the support and resistance levels until the inflation rates are showing signs of improvement. Or when the Fed starts to reduce interest rates.
The index will have to surpass the 396 level to get out of the bear market and enter a bull market. This is around 20% gain from the recent low of 328 back in Sep 2022.
Despite ongoing concerns on the weakening of USD and potential falls of more banks globally, I believe the market decline thus far has priced in those impact.
Note that USD strengthened to never before seen levels during the pandemic. Hence I believe, it is currently correcting its levels to normalcy.
Risks to the VOO;
- Further increase in interest rates
- USD weakening to below the pre-pandemic levels
- Hyperinflation environment in the US economy
- Unforeseen black swan
The index will have to surpass the 396 level to get out of the bear market and enter a bull market. This is around 20% gain from the recent low of 328 back in Sep 2022.
Despite ongoing concerns on the weakening of USD and potential falls of more banks globally, I believe the market decline thus far has priced in those impact.
Note that USD strengthened to never before seen levels during the pandemic. Hence I believe, it is currently correcting its levels to normalcy.
Risks to the VOO;
- Further increase in interest rates
- USD weakening to below the pre-pandemic levels
- Hyperinflation environment in the US economy
- Unforeseen black swan
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