Is 2021 the year of Smart Glasses?
Updated
A 2021 tipping point for Smart Glasses could accelerate this micro-cap into the stratosphere.
A Little History
We've seen it before. Remember the Glassholes? Google Glass was released in 2013 and early adopters were found everywhere, wearing the devices, not paying attention to their surroundings and indiscriminately snapping photos and videos whenever they felt like it.
As with many new innovations, the initial round doesn't go well. The first smartphone was the Simon Personal Communicator, released by IBM in 1994. It wasn't until 13 years later that Apple released the iPhone and made smartphones ubiquitous. Microsoft released a sophisticated tablet computer with pen input in 2000. It wasn't even first to the scene, but it was still 10 years too early for consumers. Early Smart Watches were big, clunky and uncool, but now many are competing for market share against Apple's iWatch.
So the question is when will Smart Glasses hit a tipping point and become something as ubiquitous as Smartphones, Tablets and Smart Watches? Some say 2020 was going to be the year, but delays in product releases and infrastructure such as 5G amongst a world distracted by the pandemic has delayed those predictions. 2021 could be the year.
Applications of Smart Glasses
There are a lot of great applications for Smart Glasses that go way beyond the original creepy activities of Google Glass.
From a consumer perspective, imagine eliminated the crowds of people walking down the street staring at their phones. Instead, they are heads-up receiving text messages within their field of view, or following directions to their next destination. The phone remains in the pocket.
A popular usage among professionals is in surgical scenarios where doctors need reference materials, charts and Xrays but need their hands to remain engaged in the procedure. A doctor in Europe recently worked with Pixee Medical and Vuzix Smart glasses to complete a complete knee replacement surgery, utilizing the glasses as a guide in the surgery.
Enterprises are interested in Augmented Reality applications for everything from virtual meetings to deploying service personal with the extra support of hands-free manuals and the ability to call in remote assistance where an expert can see exactly what the service person is seeing.
First responders can utilize Smart Glasses for real-time guidance in emergency situations. An heads-up assistant could help a search and rescue mission to navigate the rubble of a fallen building during an earthquaker.
Necessary Ingredients
What does it take to make Smart Glasses successful? As with most new devices, the Smart Glasses need to become small and light weight enough to fit naturally into a persons daily flow. Big bulky and heavy glasses would never get used. The current release of Vuzix Smart Glasses (the Upgraded Blade) have the right size and weight, but still have that Smart Glasses look to them. However, the next release really starts to look like normal glasses with an appearance like thick designer frames.
Those small light weight frames still need to contain a powerful computer with sensors such as cameras, microphones and GPS. It needs to have speakers and wifi modems. It also needs to have two high-resolution video displays with enough clarity to be useful for applications.
Finally, there needs to be Apps. Part of the reason Apple was finally successful with the iPhone, was the amazing number of high quality applications available in the Apple Store. Vuzix has done well in this regard, with an online store you can browse from their website. They have popular apps like Zoom Video, Netflix, Yelp, Google Earth, and most importantly a Trading View app.
All of this also depends on a reasonable price point. The Vuzix smart glasses currently cost around $600, depending on the region. NReal (their closest competitor) is also around that price point. More expensive devices from Microsoft and Magic Leap can cost as much as $3500.
Fundamentals for Vuzix
Technicals
I do own a small position, but the stock is extended and volatility is too high to offer a buy point.
A Little History
We've seen it before. Remember the Glassholes? Google Glass was released in 2013 and early adopters were found everywhere, wearing the devices, not paying attention to their surroundings and indiscriminately snapping photos and videos whenever they felt like it.
As with many new innovations, the initial round doesn't go well. The first smartphone was the Simon Personal Communicator, released by IBM in 1994. It wasn't until 13 years later that Apple released the iPhone and made smartphones ubiquitous. Microsoft released a sophisticated tablet computer with pen input in 2000. It wasn't even first to the scene, but it was still 10 years too early for consumers. Early Smart Watches were big, clunky and uncool, but now many are competing for market share against Apple's iWatch.
So the question is when will Smart Glasses hit a tipping point and become something as ubiquitous as Smartphones, Tablets and Smart Watches? Some say 2020 was going to be the year, but delays in product releases and infrastructure such as 5G amongst a world distracted by the pandemic has delayed those predictions. 2021 could be the year.
Applications of Smart Glasses
There are a lot of great applications for Smart Glasses that go way beyond the original creepy activities of Google Glass.
From a consumer perspective, imagine eliminated the crowds of people walking down the street staring at their phones. Instead, they are heads-up receiving text messages within their field of view, or following directions to their next destination. The phone remains in the pocket.
A popular usage among professionals is in surgical scenarios where doctors need reference materials, charts and Xrays but need their hands to remain engaged in the procedure. A doctor in Europe recently worked with Pixee Medical and Vuzix Smart glasses to complete a complete knee replacement surgery, utilizing the glasses as a guide in the surgery.
Enterprises are interested in Augmented Reality applications for everything from virtual meetings to deploying service personal with the extra support of hands-free manuals and the ability to call in remote assistance where an expert can see exactly what the service person is seeing.
First responders can utilize Smart Glasses for real-time guidance in emergency situations. An heads-up assistant could help a search and rescue mission to navigate the rubble of a fallen building during an earthquaker.
Necessary Ingredients
What does it take to make Smart Glasses successful? As with most new devices, the Smart Glasses need to become small and light weight enough to fit naturally into a persons daily flow. Big bulky and heavy glasses would never get used. The current release of Vuzix Smart Glasses (the Upgraded Blade) have the right size and weight, but still have that Smart Glasses look to them. However, the next release really starts to look like normal glasses with an appearance like thick designer frames.
Those small light weight frames still need to contain a powerful computer with sensors such as cameras, microphones and GPS. It needs to have speakers and wifi modems. It also needs to have two high-resolution video displays with enough clarity to be useful for applications.
Finally, there needs to be Apps. Part of the reason Apple was finally successful with the iPhone, was the amazing number of high quality applications available in the Apple Store. Vuzix has done well in this regard, with an online store you can browse from their website. They have popular apps like Zoom Video, Netflix, Yelp, Google Earth, and most importantly a Trading View app.
All of this also depends on a reasonable price point. The Vuzix smart glasses currently cost around $600, depending on the region. NReal (their closest competitor) is also around that price point. More expensive devices from Microsoft and Magic Leap can cost as much as $3500.
Fundamentals for Vuzix
- Still a small company with under 100 employees
- Founded in 1997 as VR Acquisition Corp
- IPO in 2009 as a penny stock, listed in 2011
- Last three quarters YoY sales +12%, +39%, +140%
- Last three quarters EPS of -0.18, -0.13, -0.13
- Sales growth is mostly from most recent Smart Glasses release
- 14% Management owned, Only 7% fund ownership (Taylor Frigon Core Growth is largest fund)
Technicals
- +640% since March Lows
- +54% in last four days
- -44% below all-time high of 11.40
- Approximately 24 weeks in current base
- Support/Resistance at $4.00, $5.30, $7.00 and $8.00
I do own a small position, but the stock is extended and volatility is too high to offer a buy point.
Note
Doing a little more research on Vuzix this weekend. I found Vuzix CEO's video on youtube from the Benzinga Global Small Cap Conference. This video was released on the same day that the price started to breakout on 12/10. Watching it, you can see why it was a catalyst. youtube.com/watch?v=zSYohs0AYh0
In the video, Paul Travers describes the opportunity and future growth could mean $100 of millions in revenue. However the money line is when he shows a chart with 13 months of average 1.2m in sales. While the chart is displayed he says "In October alone, we met that number" and goes onto say November was good too and December is off to a great start.
Note
Cathie Wood's ARKQ added 292,091 shares of VUZI this past week. The position is only 0.12% of the portfolio, but is only one of 49 companies in the Innovation-focused ETF. Share's in Friday's after-market rose 16.64% on the news.
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