VIX - VXZ Front Month / Monthly
A Gap 10 Handles below - Weekly and Monthly Chart which is of concern
for the Bulls.
Delta remains the trade in the VIX.
Extensions in Trade, this can become an exponential move barring no
Monkey Business from the Operators, ESF, and FED.
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The 54.04% move Higher was the 4th largest move since the inception of the VIX.
2021 - 61.44%
2007 - 64.22%
2018 - 115.60%
For the Point move, 10 Handles ranks 18th, 2020 was 1st @ 24.86 Points.
Statistically, the percentage move on Friday is an extreme outlier.
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Price Left a lower Gap 10 Points below.
Implied Volatility of At The Money Options... need to be Observed.
VXX Spike @ 4 Highest. for M1/M2
____________________________________________________________________
For Historical reference - the OEX or SP 100 Equivalent during the 1987 Reversal:
Baseline VXO (Correlated Historical) Spiked to 30 from 18.22.
At the time I was working at Drexel and will never forget how Investors began
selling OEX Puts at the Money/Above - believing the one-day event was a knockoff.
This was Friday., end of week anomaly. Screw Germany was the thinking. The Ripples
will be contained. Greenspan provided the Emergency pat down to Member Banks
the following week, reminding them - this event must be contained for everyone's
Financial health.
The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an
additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987.
__________________________________________________________________________
Nervousness appeared the following Monday AM briefing @ 5 AM. John Jetter asked
the team to contact clients and reduce exposure to OEX to reduce Risk.
Monday did not end well for those who did not heed his strategy.
The VXO on Equivalent - Spikesd again to 170+ Monday, setting near 150 on the Day.
This was THE largest single Daily move in Market Volatility in History.
The One Day wonder turned into the largest Bloodbath in History for Bulls and
sellers of OEX Puts, Dip Buyers, and the Pop and Fresh Peter Lynch Herd.
They were decimated, the Magellan Fund took its largest 2 Day loss ever. Small
Caos were raked - defeating the individual investors had inherent advantages
over large institutions Thesis.
Theories do jump out of High rises in a Lifetime of Investing.
Leverage was not an issue then as it is now.
It sets a preamble for enormous declines, the Potential for them.
_______________________________________________________________________
Will History report?
It has a higher than usual Probability of doing precisely that.
We will see, at some point, there will be an outsized retracement, from where...
Fundamentally Straight down or not at all.
Interesting times indeed.
for the Bulls.
Delta remains the trade in the VIX.
Extensions in Trade, this can become an exponential move barring no
Monkey Business from the Operators, ESF, and FED.
_________________________________________________________________
The 54.04% move Higher was the 4th largest move since the inception of the VIX.
2021 - 61.44%
2007 - 64.22%
2018 - 115.60%
For the Point move, 10 Handles ranks 18th, 2020 was 1st @ 24.86 Points.
Statistically, the percentage move on Friday is an extreme outlier.
__________________________________________________________________
Price Left a lower Gap 10 Points below.
Implied Volatility of At The Money Options... need to be Observed.
VXX Spike @ 4 Highest. for M1/M2
____________________________________________________________________
For Historical reference - the OEX or SP 100 Equivalent during the 1987 Reversal:
Baseline VXO (Correlated Historical) Spiked to 30 from 18.22.
At the time I was working at Drexel and will never forget how Investors began
selling OEX Puts at the Money/Above - believing the one-day event was a knockoff.
This was Friday., end of week anomaly. Screw Germany was the thinking. The Ripples
will be contained. Greenspan provided the Emergency pat down to Member Banks
the following week, reminding them - this event must be contained for everyone's
Financial health.
The S&P 500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an
additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987.
__________________________________________________________________________
Nervousness appeared the following Monday AM briefing @ 5 AM. John Jetter asked
the team to contact clients and reduce exposure to OEX to reduce Risk.
Monday did not end well for those who did not heed his strategy.
The VXO on Equivalent - Spikesd again to 170+ Monday, setting near 150 on the Day.
This was THE largest single Daily move in Market Volatility in History.
The One Day wonder turned into the largest Bloodbath in History for Bulls and
sellers of OEX Puts, Dip Buyers, and the Pop and Fresh Peter Lynch Herd.
They were decimated, the Magellan Fund took its largest 2 Day loss ever. Small
Caos were raked - defeating the individual investors had inherent advantages
over large institutions Thesis.
Theories do jump out of High rises in a Lifetime of Investing.
Leverage was not an issue then as it is now.
It sets a preamble for enormous declines, the Potential for them.
_______________________________________________________________________
Will History report?
It has a higher than usual Probability of doing precisely that.
We will see, at some point, there will be an outsized retracement, from where...
Fundamentally Straight down or not at all.
Interesting times indeed.
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