VXX Long w/ channel for entry/exit positions.
Everyone already talking about how this sucker is going to pop. Got in on 8/17 @ $24.83 and kicking myself for not selling at $33! Did this analysis do give myself some peace of mind!
Analysis:
1. Nice parallel channel only broken through once on LONG side and once on SHORT side.
- Can safely enter/exit trades at bottom/top of channel respectively. Note 2 price levels noted are for December 15th (post election) and show channel boundaries of $16.67 and $40.43.
- Breaking through channel is possible and on downside and would use lower boundary as a stop and look to re-enter once back into channel (quickly renter as per March movement!)
- Breaking through channel is possible on topside and this should be easy to manage. Let it test the top and if it breaks through then just let it ride. if it bounces down, sell (quickly).
CURRENTLY:
2. 30+ touches (or near touches) for chart on SMA50.
- Currently slightly below SMA50 so statistically likely to drift back down rather than crossing over and creeping up. As per above, could get as low as $16.67 (and statistically likely to bounce back up if it does).
- Only 3 were major crossovers for SMA50 in LONG direction and only 3 were major crossover in SHORT direction. Major crossovers in LONG position occurred after proper U-turn, early U-turn, and after a late U-turn (breakthrough) - so its hard to tell when its coming! (we are currently post "early U-turn"). For major crossovers in SHORT position they seem to occur only after a proper U-turn (although not all proper U-turns led to major crossover). [3 of the 5 proper U-turns (red arrows) were followed by major crossover of SMA50. The other 2 proper U-turns preceded proper U-turns with follow through]. Hence, with current level we are NOT likely to get down to bottom of channel because we have not gotten to the top of the channel yet for a proper U-turn. Currently we are more likely to either breakthrough SMA50 (? intensity) vrs. hug the bottom side of the SMA 50 (in the $25-29 range).
Analysis:
1. Nice parallel channel only broken through once on LONG side and once on SHORT side.
- Can safely enter/exit trades at bottom/top of channel respectively. Note 2 price levels noted are for December 15th (post election) and show channel boundaries of $16.67 and $40.43.
- Breaking through channel is possible and on downside and would use lower boundary as a stop and look to re-enter once back into channel (quickly renter as per March movement!)
- Breaking through channel is possible on topside and this should be easy to manage. Let it test the top and if it breaks through then just let it ride. if it bounces down, sell (quickly).
CURRENTLY:
2. 30+ touches (or near touches) for chart on SMA50.
- Currently slightly below SMA50 so statistically likely to drift back down rather than crossing over and creeping up. As per above, could get as low as $16.67 (and statistically likely to bounce back up if it does).
- Only 3 were major crossovers for SMA50 in LONG direction and only 3 were major crossover in SHORT direction. Major crossovers in LONG position occurred after proper U-turn, early U-turn, and after a late U-turn (breakthrough) - so its hard to tell when its coming! (we are currently post "early U-turn"). For major crossovers in SHORT position they seem to occur only after a proper U-turn (although not all proper U-turns led to major crossover). [3 of the 5 proper U-turns (red arrows) were followed by major crossover of SMA50. The other 2 proper U-turns preceded proper U-turns with follow through]. Hence, with current level we are NOT likely to get down to bottom of channel because we have not gotten to the top of the channel yet for a proper U-turn. Currently we are more likely to either breakthrough SMA50 (? intensity) vrs. hug the bottom side of the SMA 50 (in the $25-29 range).
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